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EN Cities of tomorrow Challenges, visions, ways forward October 2011Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward 1.1. Introduction Finally, we describe European policy context and introduce the European model of urban development, a shared ‘Our cities possess unique cultural and architectural European vision of the Cities of tomorrow and a shared qualities, strong forces of social inclusion and exceptional European vision of the territorial development of cities. possibilities for economic development. They are centres of knowledge and sources of growth and innovation. At the same time, however, they suffer from demographic 1.2. What do we mean by cities ? problems, social inequality, social exclusion of specific population groups, a lack of affordable and suitable There are many definitions of a city. ‘City’ can refer to 1 housing, and environmental problems.’ an administrative unit or a certain population density. A distinction is sometimes made between towns and Cities play a key role in the lives of most Europeans. cities – the former are smaller ( e.g. between 10 000 and Not only does a majority of the population live in cities, 50 000  inhabitants ) and the latter larger ( above but cities also play a key role in the social and economic 50 000  inhabitants ). ‘City’ can also refer more generally development of all European territories. It seems almost to perceptions of an urban way of life and specific cultural paradoxical that there is no common definition for ‘urban’ or social features, as well as functional places of economic or even ‘city’, and that the European Union has no explicit activity and exchange. policy competence in urban development. However, in this chapter we demonstrate not only the importance ‘City’ may also refer to two different realities : the de jure city of cities, but also the crucial role that Europe has to play – the administrative city – and the de facto city – the larger in their future. There is, in fact, an explicit European model socio-economic agglomeration. The de jure city corresponds of urban development. to a large extent to the historic city with its clear borders for trade and defence and a well-defined city centre. The de facto The ‘European model of the city’ is a fascinating issue. city corresponds to physical or socio-economic realities which On the one hand, it captures essential features of European have been approached through either a morphological or a cultural history, and it is deeply rooted in the past and, functional definition. For analytical purposes, a city definition hence, related to the identity question. On the other, based on a minimum density and number of inhabitants has it captures essential aspects of the political vision of been developed jointly by the European Commission and the European Union and, hence, of the future as envisaged the OECD. It is presented in the Annex. 2 by the underlying society. A Morphological Urban Area ( MUA ) depicts the continuity Before arriving at the European model of urban of the built-up space with a defined level of density. 3 development, we briefly discuss alternative administrative A Functional Urban Area ( FUA ) can be described by and functional definitions of cities, and point to the its labour market basin and by the mobility patterns of importance of understanding urban issues in a territorial commuters, and includes the wider urban system of nearby context. We also stress the increasing significance of towns and villages that are highly economically and socially 4 cities, especially in meeting the objectives of the Europe dependent on a major urban centre. For example, the 2020  strategy, as well as those set out in the Treaty, i.e. administrative city of London has a population of 7.4 million, the promotion of economic, social and territorial cohesion. its MUA holds 8.3 million and its FUA 13.7 million residents. 1 LeipzigCharteronSustainableEuropeanCities Ag ( r eed on the occasion of the Informal Ministerial Meeting on Urban Development and Territorial Cohesion in Leipzig on 24/25 May 2007 ). 2 Calafati, Antonio, Citiesoftomorrow issue paper, December 2010. 3 An alternative but similar concept is ‘metropolitan areas’ – cf. Opinion of European Economic and Social Committee, Europeanmetropolitan areas : socio-economicimplicationsforEurope’sfuture, rapporteur : Joost van Iersel , April 2007. 4 Tosics, Iván, Citiesoftomorrow issue paper, January 2011 – reference to ESPON 1.4.3 study (ESPON, 2007). 1Katowice has a relatively small administrative city population The relevant governance level may, therefore, vary from of 320 000, while its MUA population is sevenfold in size, local to European level, or be a combination of several tiers. i.e. 2.3 million. The FUA of Lille is 11 times larger than its In other words, urban policy needs to be understood  5 administrative city – 2.6 million compared to 230 000. and to operate in a multi-scalar context. FUAs may be monocentric or polycentric ( i.e. corresponding By ‘Cities of tomorrow’ we, therefore, refer to future urban to networks of tightly linked cities or agglomerations agglomerations, cities and towns in a territorial context. with no dominating centre ). Neither Morphological nor Functional Urban Areas are stable entities ; as the urban landscape and economic patterns evolve, so do 1.3. The growing importance of cities densification and mobility patterns. In the last century, Europe transformed itself from a largely Other concepts and approaches exist to describe and define rural to a predominantly urban continent. It is estimated de facto cities. Whatever the favoured concept, it is clear that around 70 % of the EU population – approximately that the reality of the de facto city has expanded far beyond 350  million people – live in urban agglomerations the de jure city and that it is at this level that urban policy of more than 5 000  inhabitants. Although the speed must find its long-term perspective. of transformation has slowed down, the share of the urban 7 population continues to grow. With the expansion of the de facto cities, the delimitation of urban and rural has become less clear or even lost its Europe is also characterised by a more polycentric and less sense. “The boundary between the city and the countryside concentrated urban structure compared to, for instance, is disappearing while the rural and the urban have melted the USA or China. There are 23 cities of more than 1 million 6 into a new rurban condition”. This is reinforced where nearby inhabitants and 345 cities of more than 100 000 inhabitants overlapping FUAs form large complex urban systems, as is in the European Union, representing around 143 million the case in Northern England, the Benelux or the Ruhr area. people. Only 7 % of the EU population live in cities of over 5 million inhabitants compared to 25 % in the USA. There are striking differences between Member States in In addition, 56 % of the European urban population – the way that cities function and are governed. In some around 38 % of the total European population – live in countries, there are no particular city-specific administrative small and medium-sized cities and towns of between 5 000 8 units, while in others, cities have unique administrative and 100 000 inhabitants. rights and responsibilities. In this report we take a pragmatic stance and use the 1.3.1. Cities play a key role in economic growth term ‘cities’ to define urban agglomerations in general, as well as the administrative units governing them. The concentration of consumers, workers and businesses From a policy perspective it is important to understand in a place or area, together with the formal and informal the territorial scale of urban issues, which may range from institutions that make an agglomeration ‘thick’ and neighbourhood or administrative city level to a larger cohesive, has the potential to produce externalities and FUA or even beyond. An urban problem may have very increasing returns to scale. Sixty-seven per cent of Europe’s   9 local symptoms but require a wider territorial solution. GDP is generated in metropolitan regions, while their 5 Tosics, Iván, op. cit., see table in Annex. 6 Allingham, Peter and Raahauge, Kirsten Marie, ‘Introduction : Post City Represented’ in ‘Knowledge, technology and policy’, Volume 21, number 6, Springer 2008. 7 10 % continued increase of urban population up to 2050, in WorldUrbanisationProspects : The2009Revision, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2010. 8 Figures are based on a definition of cities and towns in terms of density ( see Annex 2 – Chapter 1, and Table 1 below ). 9 Metropolitan regions are defined as ‘larger urban zones’ with more than 250 000 inhabitants ( Source : DG REGIO ). 214 population only represents fifty-nine per cent of the total with a high density of different activities. However, current European population. A comparison of European cities’ research explains little about how exactly these come into economic performance also indicates that the major cities play, or about the critical thresholds of different elements,  13 are doing better than the rest. However, there is marked making the concept difficult to operationalise. difference in performance between capital and non-capital cities. It is hard to distinguish the effects of agglomeration It has been suggested that agglomeration effects have alone from the positive externalities of being a capital city limits and that the negative externalities that can result 15 and centre of both public and private administrations. from agglomeration – such as traffic congestion, price There is also an even bigger difference between Western increases and a lack of affordable housing, pollution, urban and Eastern non-capital cities that cannot be explained by sprawl, rising costs of urban infrastructure, social tensions size alone. A concentration of activity is neither a necessary and higher crime rates – may outweigh the benefits. nor a sufficient condition for high growth. Apart from the direct economic costs of a decrease in the efficiency of the economy, there is also the additional Agglomeration economies have come back into policy cost of a degraded environment, health problems and fashion after some decades, focusing attention on the a reduced quality of life. According to the OECD, the general availability and diversity of resources in a location relationship between income and population size becomes 16 17 The importance of small and medium-sized cities regional landscapes . It has been argued that their growth and development structure in Western Europe constitutes 18 The importance of small and medium-sized cities should the most balanced urban system in the world . not be underestimated. A large part of the urban population live in small or medium-sized cities spread across the The generic features of small and medium-sized cities – continent. These cities play a role in the well-being and particularly their human scale, liveability, the conviviality livelihood not only of their own inhabitants but also of the of their neighbourhoods, and their geographical rural populations surrounding them. They are centres for embeddedness and historical character – in many ways 19 public and private services, as well as for local and regional constitute an ideal of sustainable urbanism . knowledge production, innovation and infrastructure. Small and medium-sized cities are, therefore, essential Small and medium-sized cities often play a pivotal role within for avoiding rural depopulation and urban drift, and are regional economies. They constitute the building blocks of indispensable for the balanced regional development, urban regions and lend character and distinctiveness to their cohesion and sustainability of the European territory. 13 E uropean Commission, Second‘StateofEuropeanCitiesReport’, RWI, DIFU, NEA Transport research and training and PRAC, Brussels, December 2010, p. 75 : ‘It is remarkable that in most European countries there is an exceptional agglomeration of wealth in the capital city. This verifies the dominant and unique position of capitals in a ( national ) economic system. In eight European capitals, the GDP per head is more than double the national average. Not surprisingly, this applies to London and Paris, but also to the capitals of the EU-12 Member States such as Warsaw, Bratislava, Sofia, Bucharest, Prague, Budapest, Riga and Tallinn.’ 14 ‘Agglomeration economies, the benefits that firms and workers enjoy as a result of proximity, make it likely that output density will increase more than proportionately with employment or population density.’ ReshapingEconomicGeography, World Development Report 2009, p. 85. 15 Barca,Fabrizio,AnagendaforareformedCohesionPolicy–Aplace-basedapproachtomeetingEuropeanUnionchallengesandexpectation, independent report, April 2009 http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/policy/future/pdf/report_barca_v0306.pdf. 16 References based on Mahsud, A. Z. K., Moulaert, F., ProspectiveUrbaine–ExploringUrbanFuturesinEuropeanCities back , ( ground paper and questionnaire, Urban Futures workshop – November 9th 2010, Leuven ). 17 K nox, Paul L. and Mayer, Heike, SmallTownSustainabilit:y  Economic,Social,andEnvironmentalInnovation, Birkhauser Verlag, Basel 2009. 18 T heRoleofSmallandMedium-SizedTowns SMEST ( O ), final report, ESPON 1.4.1, 2006 ; ref. to Sassen, S., Citiesinaworldeconomy, second edition, Sociology for a new century, London, New Delhi, 2000. 19 Farr, D., SustainableUrbanism : UrbanDesignwithNature, John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, 2008. 4Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward negative at around 6-7 million, suggesting diseconomies of For example, cities are key players in the reduction of CO 2 20 agglomeration due to congestion and other related costs. emissions and the fight against climate change. Energy consumption in urban areas – mostly in transport and housing – is responsible for a large share of CO emissions. 2 21 1.3.2. Cities contribute both to problems According to worldwide estimations, about two thirds and to solutions of final energy demand is linked to urban consumptions 22 and up to 70 % of CO emissions are generated in cities. 2 Cities are places of high concentration of problems. Although The urban way of life is both part of the problem and part cities are generators of growth, the highest unemployment of the solution. rates are found in cities. Globalisation has led to a loss of jobs – especially in the manufacturing sector – and this In Europe, CO emission per person is much lower in urban 2 23 has been amplified by the economic crisis. Many cities areas compared to non-urban areas. The density of urban face a significant loss of inclusive power and cohesion and areas allows for more energy-efficient forms of housing, an increase in exclusion, segregation and polarisation. transport and service provision. Consequently, measures Increasing immigration combined with loss of jobs has to address climate change may be more efficient and cost- resulted in problems of integration and increasing racist effective in big and compact cities than in less densely built and xenophobic attitudes, which has amplified these space. The impact of measures to reduce CO emissions 2 problems. taken in a single big metropolis like London may have a great effect. It is clear that European cities merit special interest and that the future of our cities will shape the future of Europe. 20 OECDTerritorialReviews :C ompetitiveCitiesintheGlobalEconomy, Paris, 2006, quoted in AnagendaforareformedCohesionsee abo Policy ( ve ). 21 T here are various estimations of urban consumption of energy and related emissions. According to the World Energy Outlook ( November 2008 ) http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/index.asp, much of the world’s energy – an estimated 7 908 M tonnes of oil equivalent in 2006 – is consumed in cities. Cities today house around half of the world’s population but account for two thirds of global energy use. City residents consume more coal, gas and electricity than the global average, but less oil. Because of their larger consumption of fossil fuels, cities emit 76 % of the world’s energy-related CO . However, according to D. Satterthwaite ( International Institute of Environment and Development, UK ), 2 cities contribute much less to greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions than assumed, particularly in poorer countries ( EnvironmentandUrbanisation, September 2008 ). 22 It is difficult to give a precise measure of CO emissions as some figures are estimates on the basis of urban consumption of energy 2 produced elsewhere. 23 A rural resident would consume an average of 4.9 tonnes of oil equivalent/year in Europe while a city resident would consume 3.5 tonnes of oil equivalent. Source : IEA, 2008 and World Energy Outlook, 2008, International Energy Agency, Geneva. 524 Cities’ contribution to Europe 2020 Green Growth : Cities are both part of the problem and part of the solution. The promotion of green, compact Cities are expected to play a key role in the implementa- and energy-efficient cities is a key contribution to tion of Europe 2020 and its seven flagship initiatives. green growth. Cities have an important role to play in implementing the agenda of the two flagship projects 29 Smart Growth : Cities concentrate the largest proportion ‘Resource-Efficient Europe’ and ‘An Integrated industrial 30 of the population with higher education. They are at policy for the globalisation era’ . These energy and the forefront in implementing innovation strategies. industrial policies are based on strategic, integrated Innovation indicators such as patent intensity approaches, building inter alia on the clear support and demonstrate that there is a higher innovation activity involvement of local authorities, stakeholders and citizens. in cities than in countries as a whole. Innovation output 25 is particularly high in the very large agglomerations . Inclusive growth : Social exclusion and segregation are The three flagship projects – the ‘Digital Agenda for predominantly urban phenomena. Cities are the home of 26 27 Europe’ , the ‘Innovation Union’ and ‘Youth on the most jobs, but also have high unemployment rates. Cities 28 Move’ – address a series of urban challenges such as : can contribute to inclusive growth, notably in combating exploitation of the full potential of information and social polarisation and poverty, avoiding the segregation communication technology for better health care, of ethnic groups and addressing the issues of ageing. The 31 a cleaner environment and easier access to public European Platform against Poverty and Social Exclusion services ; the development of innovation partnerships sets out to reach the EU target of reducing poverty and for smarter and cleaner urban mobility ; the reduction social exclusion by at least 20 million by 2020. It will help of the number of early school leavers and the to identify best practices and promote mutual learning support for youth at risk, young entrepreneurs and between municipalities. An additional flagship initiative, 32 self-employment. ‘An Agenda for new skills and jobs’ , has been launched to reach the EU employment rate target for women and men of 75 % for the 20–64-year-old age group by 2020. 6Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward 1.4. European policy context The 2007 Leipzig Charter on Sustainable European Cities has been the chief outcome of this process. It stresses Urban planning per se is not a European policy compe- the importance of an integrated approach to urban tence. However, economic, social and territorial cohesion development and a focus on deprived neighbourhoods in all have a strong urban dimension. As the vast majority of order to remedy vicious circles of exclusion and deprivation. Europeans live in or depend on cities, their developments In 2010 this was taken further with the Toledo Declaration, cannot be isolated from a wider European policy frame- which not only underlines the need for an integrated work. The EU has had a growing impact on the develop- approach in urban development, but also promotes a ment of cities over recent decades, notably through cohe- common understanding of it. The Toledo Declaration sion policy. effectively links the Leipzig Charter to the objectives of 34 Europe 2020. Europe 2020 has seven flagship initiatives in which both the EU and national authorities will coordinate 1.4.1. The ‘Acquis Urbain ’ their efforts. An on-going intergovernmental process of more than two The political process has been mirrored on the ground by decades, coupled with the practical experiences gained through the support for urban development from the European the URBAN pilot projects and two rounds of URBAN Community Regional Development Fund ( ERDF ), notably via the Urban 33 Initiatives, have led to an explicit European consensus on Pilot Projects ( 1989–99 ) and the URBAN and URBAN II the principles of urban development, the ‘Acquis Urbain’. Community Initiatives ( 1994–2006 ). These EU initiatives focused on four core objectives : ( i ) strengthening Successive EU Council Presidencies have recognised the economic prosperity and employment in towns and cities ; relevance of urban issues and urban development policies ( ii ) promoting equality, social inclusion and regeneration at all levels of government. In particular, a series of informal in urban areas ; ( iii ) protecting and improving the urban ministerial meetings on urban development – in Lille 2000, environment to achieve local and global sustainability ; Rotterdam 2004, Bristol 2005, Leipzig 2007, Marseille and ( iv ) contributing to good urban governance and 2008 and Toledo 2010 – have shaped common European local empowerment. The URBAN Community Initiatives objectives and principles for urban development. These demonstrated the virtues of the integrated approach, meetings have helped to forge a culture of cooperation focusing on both soft and hard investments. They also on urban affairs between Member States, the European showed that the involvement and ownership of projects of Commission, the European Parliament, the Committee stakeholders, including citizens, was an important success of the Regions and other European Institutions, as well factor. Another success factor was the relatively high share as urban stakeholders like the Council of European of per capita investment, i.e. targeted investments with Municipalities and Regions ( CEMR ) and EUROCITIES. a sufficient critical mass. 24 http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm. 25 Second‘StateofEuropeancitiesreport’, op. cit. 26 C ommunication from the Commission to the Council and Parliament, AdigitalagendaforEurope, Brussels, COM( 2010 ) 245 final/2. 27 E urope 2020 Flagship Initiative ‘Innovation Union’, European Commission COM( 2010 ) 546 final. 28 Communication from the Commission, Youthonthemove–Aninitiativetounleashthepotentialofyoungpeopletoachievesmart, sustainableandinclusivegrowthintheEuropeanUnion, Brussels, COM( 2010 ) 477 final. 29 C ommunication from the Commission, A resource-efficient Europe – Flagship initiative under the Europe 2020 Strategy, Brussels, COM( 2011 ) 21 final. 30 Communication from the Commission, Anintegratedindustrialpolicyfortheglobalisationera–Puttingcompetitivenessandsustainability atcentrestage, Brussels, COM( 2010 ) 614. 31 Communication from the Commission, TheEuropeanPlatformagainstPovertyandSocialExclusion :AE uropeanframeworkforsocial andterritorialcohesion, Brussels, COM( 2010 ) 758 final. 32 Communication from the Commission, AnAgendafornewskillsandjobs :A Europeancontributiontowardsfullemployment, Brussels, COM( 2010 ) 682 final. 33 URBAN I ( 1994–99 ) and URBAN II ( 2000–06 ) were two Community Initiatives of the European Regional Development Fund ( ERDF ) focused on the sustainable integrated development of deprived urban districts. 34 cf. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/newsroom/pdf/201006_toledo_declaration_en.pdf. 7The urban dimension has been mainstreamed in the current and cross-sectoral approach is needed to transform the main ERDF programming period, which has given all Member territorial challenges of the European Union into potentials States and regions the possibility to design, programme and to ensure balanced, harmonious and sustainable territorial implement tailor-made, integrated development operations development. in their cities. City networking and exchange of urban integrated development experiences is being promoted TA2020 effectively links territorial cohesion with the 35 by the URBACT programme ( 2002–13 ). Europe 2020 strategy. It provides strategic orientations for territorial development and stresses that most policies can be more efficient and can achieve synergies with other 1.4.2. The Territorial Agenda policies if the territorial dimension and territorial impacts are taken into account. With the Lisbon Treaty, territorial cohesion was recognised as a key objective of the European Union. This resulted from a TA2020 promotes balanced, polycentric territorial policy process that ran parallel to and was linked with that of development and the use of integrated development urban development. The adoptions of the European Spatial approaches in cities as well as rural and specific regions. 36 Development Perspective ( ESDP ) in 1999 and the Territorial It points to the need for territorial integration in cross-border 37 Agenda of the European Union ( TAEU ) and Leipzig Charter and transnational functional regions and stresses the role of in 2007 have been significant milestones. The TAEU was strong local economies in ensuring global competitiveness. revised in 2011 to better reflect European challenges and It also highlights the importance of improving territorial policy priorities – notably Europe 2020 – leading to the connectivity for individuals, communities and enterprises, adoption of the Territorial Agenda of the European Union as well as managing and connecting the ecological, 2020 ( TA2020 ). It builds on the principle that an integrated landscape and cultural values of regions. 35 cf . http://urbact.eu 36 cf. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/official/reports/som_en.htm. 37 cf . http://www.eu-territorial-agenda.eu/Reference%20Documents/Territorial-Agenda-of-the-European-Union-Agreed-on-25-May-2007.pdf. 8Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward LEIPZIG – Building on the URBAN Community Initiative : 38 consolidation of urban regeneration with decreasing subsidies Leipzig, the second largest city in the eastern part of and the presence of brownfield sites were still issues. Germany, is a model for redevelopment. The city’s western part had been transformed through URBAN II, however, new subsidised programmes were During the 1990s, Leipzig lost much of its population, needed for other parts. employment and industrial infrastructure. However, residents and the municipality prevented a total With fewer subsidies, Leipzig officials are again adapting meltdown, introducing incentives to attract new their strategy. Though housing and urban development residents and businesses. The population soon grew. remain priorities, the focus is more on other areas like European regional funds provided vital support to urban school planning, culture, education and quality of social regeneration and housing stock restructuring, including life. One proposal is to create a boat route linking the city’s the Wilhelminian buildings. waterways with surrounding lakes. In the early 2000s, despite much effort from the Using its experience and knowledge of sustainable cities, municipality and residents and contact made with Leipzig is leading an URBACT project, LC-FACIL, which economic investors to undertake an integrated urban aimed to contribute to the reference framework for 39 development strategy, poor conditions of housing stock European sustainable cities . 38 Following a call for tenders which was launched in the context of the “Cities of tomorrow” reflection process, the ‘ACT Consultants’ study centre has completed ten case studies in the following cities : Amsterdam, Barcelona, Brno, Florence, Gliwice, Leipzig, Newcastle, Plaine Commune, Seraing and Växjö. These were aimed at providing positive examples of successful urban policies and experiences in response to the challenges pinpointed by the experts. 39 http://ur bact.eu/en/projects/disadvantaged-neighbourhoods/lcfacil/homepage/ 91.5. Towards a shared European be found in the objectives of the Treaty, in the Charter of vision of urban development Fundamental Rights of the European Union, in the European Social Model and in the objectives of the Territorial Agenda. 1.5.1. Can we agree upon a shared ? vision They reflect the values on which the EU was founded. A vision can be defined as a shared image of a desirable Furthermore, there is a consensus among the ministers future described in precise terms. There is no single vision responsible for urban development on more specific of the European model city. In fact there might be as many city objectives and values, how these objectives should visions as there are Europeans. Many cities have developed, be attained and the instrumental role cities can play through more or less participative processes, their own in implementing Europe 2020. This has been achieved visions of what they would like their future to look like. through a continuous intergovernmental process marked These visions are diverse as they build on different realities, by the Bristol Accord, the Leipzig Charter and the Toledo different strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, Declaration. as well as different values. To develop a European normative vision of the city of the 1.5.2. A European vision future may seem like a futile exercise ; cities must develop of the Cities tomorr of ow their own visions, engaging their inhabitants, organisations, administrations and other local resources and stakeholders. The shared vision of the European City of tomorrow is one But Europe has a role to play in setting the framework, in which all dimensions of sustainable urban development providing guiding principles and enabling the cities to shape are taken into account in an integrated way. their future. A vision could be described in terms of four main elements : European Cities of tomorrow are places ● its aims, i.e. the general goals perceived as an ideal that of advanced social progress : can be achieved ; ● its major projects and their expected outcomes, ● with a high quality of life and welfare in all which will plot the future path chosen by the city ; communities and neighbourhoods of the city ; 40 ● a system of shared values , traditional and current ● with a high degree of social cohesion, balance and values, that needs to be cultivated to unite and manage integration, security and stability in the city and its our differences, as well as ‘qualities to be acquired’ neighbourhoods, with small disparities within and which will help to achieve the vision if supported among neighbourhoods and a low degree of spatial collectively ; segregation and social marginalisation ; ● a collective desire to achieve the objectives which must ● with strong social justice, protection, welfare and 41 have the potential to be expressed symbolically. social services, with no poverty, social exclusion or discrimination, and a decent existence for all, In each of these elements, Europe has a role to play. In terms with good access to general services, preventive of aims or objectives, as well as values, there is an explicit health care and medical treatment ; agreement on the character of the European city of the ● with socially-balanced housing, and decent, healthy, future and the principles on which an ideal European city suitable and affordable social housing adapted to should be based. The same goes for the principles of urban new family and demographic patterns, with high development in the European territory. These principles can architectural quality, diversity and identity ; 40 B y value we mean a type of belief representing and leading to ideal modes of conduct. 41 Destatte, Philippe, contribution to Workshop 1 Citiesoftomorrow–Urbanchallenges, Brussels, June 2010. 10Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward ● with good education, vocational and continuing ● with sustainable, non-pollutant, accessible, efficient training opportunities, including for those living and affordable transport for all citizens at the urban, in deprived neighbourhoods ; metropolitan and interurban scale with interlinking ● where the elderly can lead a life of dignity and transport modes, where non-motorised mobility is independence and participate in social and cultural favoured by good cycling and pedestrian infrastructure, life, where neighbourhoods are attractive for both and where transport needs have been reduced by young and old people, where people with disabilities the promotion of proximity and mixed-use schemes have independence, are socially and occupationally and the integrated planning of transport, housing, integrated and participate in community life, work areas, the environment and public spaces. and where men and women are equal and the rights ● European Cities of tomorrow are places of attraction of the child are protected. and engines of economic growth : ● where creativity and innovation take place and knowledge is created, shared and diffused, excellence European Cities of tomorrow are platforms is stimulated with proactive innovation and for democracy, cultural dialogue and diversity : educational policies and ongoing training for workers, and sophisticated information and communication ● with rich cultural and linguistic diversity, and a social technologies are used for education, employment, and intercultural dialogue ; social services, health, safety, security and urban ● where the rights to freedom of expression, of thought, governance ; conscience and religion, and the right to manifest ● with a high quality of life, high-quality architecture religion or belief, in worship, teaching, practice and and high-quality functional user-oriented urban observance are respected ; space, infrastructure and services, where cultural, ● with good governance based on the principles of economic, technological, social and ecological aspects openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness, are integrated in the planning and construction, coherence and subsidiarity, where citizens have where housing, employment, education, services and opportunities for social and democratic participation recreation are mixed, attracting knowledge-industry and are involved in the urban development together businesses, a qualified and creative workforce and with other stakeholders. tourism ; ● with regenerated urban local economies, diversified local production systems, local labour market policies, European Cities of tomorrow are places of green, and development and exploitation of endogenous ecological or environmental regeneration : economic forces in the neighbourhoods, which consume local green products and have short ● where the quality of the environment is protected, consumption circuits ; eco-efficiency is high and the ecological footprint ● where the heritage and architectural value of historic small, where material resources and flows are managed buildings and public spaces is exploited together with in a sustainable way, and economic progress has been the development and improvement of the urban scene, decoupled from the consumption of resources ; landscape and place, and where local residents identify ● with high energy efficiency and use of renewable themselves with the urban environment. energies, low carbon emissions, and resilience to the effects of climate change ; ● with little urban sprawl and minimised land consumption, where greenfields and natural areas are left unexploited by the recycling of land and compact city planning ; 111.5.3. A European vision of the territorial economic, social and territorial development of the development of cities European Union. The European Union aims to promote economic, social and The European Union does not have a direct policy territorial cohesion. The key role of cities in all aspects of competence in urban and territorial development, but the cohesion is undeniable in terms of not only their internal last two decades have witnessed an increasing importance but also their territorial development. Again, although of the European level in both urban and territorial the EU lacks a formal competence in spatial planning, there development. In this chapter we have demonstrated that is a consensus on key principles which may form the basis there is an explicit European model of urban development of a shared European vision. that covers both the internal development of cities as well as their territorial development. The shared vision of the European model of urban development is one in which The future urban territorial development pattern all dimensions of sustainable development are taken into account in an integrated way. ● reflects a sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and balanced territorial The European Cities of tomorrow are places of advanced organisation with a polycentric urban structure ; social progress ; they are platforms for democracy, cultural dialogue and diversity ; they are places of green, ecological or ● contains strong metropolitan regions and other environmental regeneration ; and they are places of attraction strong urban areas, such as regional centres, especially and engines of economic growth. outside the core areas of Europe, which provide good accessibility to services of general economic interest ; The future European urban territorial development should reflect a sustainable development of Europe based ● is characterised by a compact settlement structure on balanced economic growth and balanced territorial with limited urban sprawl through a strong control organisation with a polycentric urban structure ; it should of land supply and speculative development ; contain strong regional centres that provide good accessibility to services of general economic interest ; it ● enjoys a high level of protection and quality of should be characterised by a compact settlement structure the environment around cities – nature, landscape, with limited urban sprawl ; and it should enjoy a high level forestry, water resources, agricultural areas, etc. – of protection and quality of the environment around cities. and strong links and articulation between cities and their environments. However, there are many signs that the European model of urban development is under threat. As the urban population has increased, so has the pressure on land. Our present 1.6. C onclusions – shared European economies cannot provide jobs for all, and social problems urban development objectives associated with unemployment accumulate in cities. In even the richest of our cities, spatial segregation is a growing There is no denial of the importance of cities for our present problem. Cities are ideally placed to promote the reduction and our future Europe. A large majority of the European of energy consumption and CO emissions, but urban sprawl 2 population is urban. Cities play a crucial role as motors and congestion due to commuting is increasing in many of of the economy, as places of connectivity, creativity and our cities. A series of challenges must be met collectively innovation, and as service centres for their surrounding if we are to fulfil our serious ambition of truly sustainable areas. Cities are also places where problems such as and harmonious development of our cities. In the next three unemployment, segregation and poverty are concentrated. chapters, we will take a closer look at the threats, the visions The development of our cities will determine the future and the governance challenges for the Cities of tomorrow. 12Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward 132. A E uropean urban development model under threatCities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward The previous chapter pointed to the importance of cities Demography is more than birth rates and life expectancies. for Europe’s future development. It also demonstrated that Demographic trends are determined not only by birth rates there is an explicit European urban development model. and life expectancies, but also by mobility and migration. In this chapter the focus is on the weaknesses of European The finer the unit of analysis, the more important mobility cities and the threats to their prosperous and harmonious and migration become. A relatively stable demographic development. A diagnosis is made of European cities from trend in a Member State may hide important variations a demographic, economic, social, environmental and between its cities, or between cities and rural areas. governance point of view. The objective is not to establish In Germany for instance, population evolution between a diagnosis of every single challenge that cities are facing, 1991 and 2004 in different cities varied between 10 % 43 but to focus on major threats and weaknesses that have growth and 23 % shrinkage. a significant impact on cities’ development potential. In the early post-war period, the demographic dynamism across Europe allowed for abundant young inflows 2.1. Diagnosis : demographic decline to cities. According to the UN, the European urban population grew by 90 % between 1950 and 2009, while European demographic trends give rise to a series of the total population grew by only 34 %. Population challenges that differ from one country to another and from flows not only compensated for the ageing of the one city to another. There is a general trend of ageing in the native population but in several cities resulted in the EU population. The large cohorts of the baby boom born rejuvenation of the greater urban area. These domestic or immediately after the Second World War are now entering intra-EU flows are set to progressively decline for mainly their sixties and are retiring. The number of people aged 60 demographic and economic reasons. Nevertheless, and above in the EU is increasing by more than 2 million the UN still projects an increase of the urban population every year, roughly twice the rate observed until about in Europe of just below 10 % in the 2009–50  period, three years ago. By 2014, the working-age population of while the European population as a whole is predicted 44 20–64-year-olds is projected to start shrinking. As fertility to decrease from around 2025. remains considerably below replacement rates, in most EU Member States the relatively small EU population growth 42 still observed is mainly due to migration inflows. However, a detailed analysis at regional level reveals a more diverse picture of demographic patterns. 42 The 2008 projections prepared by Eurostat. 43 Mäding, Heinrich, presentation on demography in Workshop 1 Citiesoftomorrow–Urbanchallenges Brussels, June 2010. 44 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, WorldUrbanisationProspects : The2009Revision, 2010. 1545 46 Diverse demographic changes in Europe Population Change 2001–04 by city type , ( in % ) Whereas population as a whole has been growing in Northern, Western and Southern Europe, Central Europe has experienced stagnation or decline. Some Central European countries ( Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia ) reported a balanced overall population growth between 2001 and 2004, whereas core cities decreased in population. In Romania, population losses in cities were lower than in the country as a whole. A more differentiated picture can be seen in other countries ( Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland ), where some cities have lost population to a greater extent than in the countries as a whole, while other cities have experienced little population decline or have even grown. In regions which Source :EuropeanCommission,‘SecondStateofEuropeanCities’Report lag behind, the outer zones of cities gained, while core cities lost population, but in a number of exceptions ( notably Hungary and Romania ), the situation was reversed. These trends are also supported by more recent annual data provided by the Urban Audit. There is continued growth in major cities and a continued countries, have received large waves of young immigrants process of migration towards major EU cities such as Paris, over the last 15 years. London, Madrid, Barcelona, Athens, Vienna and Berlin. As the rural surplus of people has declined in most Member The economic and social dimensions of demographic change States – except for Poland and Romania – the immigrant are as important as demographic trends themselves. Cities will share of urban inflows has grown. In many EU cities the face different challenges depending on the composition number of inhabitants with foreign backgrounds now and evolution of their population structure in terms of age, 47 exceeds 20 % of those under 25 years old. Projections at household composition, share of immigrants, education city level indicate that the share of people with foreign and socio-economic situation, etc., especially in relation backgrounds will further increase since many Member to evolving economic circumstances. States, especially the UK, Ireland and the Mediterranean 45 E uropean Commission, SecondStateofEuropeanCitiesReport’, op.cit. 46 ( 1 ) “Principal Metropolises” consist of 52 very large cities, including capitals with an average of 1 000 000 inhabitants. These are the most dynamic cities in Europe in terms of innovation and entrepreneurship. ( 2 ) “Regional Centres” comprise 151 cities from all parts of Western Europe with an average population of around 290 000. These cities are not as dynamic as the principal metropolises but are above national averages. ( 3 ) “Smaller Centres” comprise 44 cities, mainly from Western Europe and mostly outside its economic core zones, with less dynamic economies but with a high share of highly qualified working-age residents. ( 4 ) “Towns and Cities of the Lagging Regions” consist of 82 smaller cities from economically lagging regions in Central and Southern Europe, which have higher unemployment, lower GDP per head but a higher share of manufacturing. 47 Analysis of Urban Audit 2001 and 2004 data collection ; data from the CLIP network of cities. 16Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward Three types of European city in terms of 48 socio-economic and demographic change : Economically dynamic cities which experience strong population increases through the inflow of both highly skilled and less qualified migrants attracted by the cities’ sustained economic power and wealth. These are mainly larger Western Europe cities closely connected to the world economy that provide a favourable environment for innovation and economic activity together with attractive living conditions. The biggest challenge for these cities is to operate proper integration strategies for the less qualified migrants. Cities with a strong economic background and stagnating or gradually shrinking populations. Most of the small and medium-sized European cities will be in this category. In these cities, the gradual shrinkage of a city does not and Bulgaria ), however, some peripheral areas of Western necessarily cause serious difficulties, and it may even be Europe are also affected ( e.g. Southern Italy, Northern an advantage as the density of the urban environment England, Northern Scandinavia, etc. ). These cities need to decreases. The challenge for these cities is to create focus on strategies to redefine and renew their economic flexible urban strategies that can accommodate both basis as the shrinkage may induce a negative spiral of upward and downward population changes, as well as declining local tax revenues, lower demand for goods and changes in socio-economic composition. services, loss of jobs, reduced supply of labour and lower investment, resulting in an overall loss of attractiveness. Cities within urban areas of complex shrinkage, where both In addition, the decline in population leads to vacant flats, demographic and economic decline can be experienced. shops and office space that in turn reduce the capital value These urban areas are mostly located in the Central and of buildings. Fewer users of public infrastructure may lead Eastern part of the EU ( in the Eastern part of Germany and to rising costs per head or may even cause the closing of 49 the Eastern regions of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania schools, libraries, etc.” Cities will have to manage growing cultural diversity. the past 15 years. In addition, Europe will have to rely more The number of people with foreign backgrounds within on migrants to balance its shrinking active population than the younger age cohorts (   25 ) already today exceeds it did in the past. A zero-immigration scenario would lead 20 % in many EU cities. Projections at city level indicate to approximately 15 million fewer active people in 2020 50 that the share of people with foreign backgrounds will compared to 2010. increase, since many Member States, e.g. the United Kingdom, Ireland and all the Mediterranean countries, A dramatic increase in very old people is an important aspect have received large waves of young immigrants over of the ageing population. The number of those aged 80 48 ImpactoftheEuropeandemographictrendsonregionalandurbandevelopment synthetic report drafted in the context of the Hungarian Presidency of the European Union, Budapest 2011. 49 M äding, Heinrich, Presentation on demography in Workshop 1 ‘Cities of tomorrow : urban challenges’, Brussels, June 2010. 50 E urostat : demographic projections Europop 2008. 1751 The cost of ageing in Germany obstacle-free apartments. Over two thirds of the people in need of care ( 1.54 million ) are cared for at home. Since Out of about 11 million households with at least one 2005 the number of people in need of care has increased person over 65 years old, 2.5 million households have by almost 6 % or 118 000 people. In the coming years, to cope with mobility handicaps, a number which will almost EUR 40 billion will have to be invested in measures increase to 2.7 million in 2013. Half of these households for structural adaptations ( removal of obstacles in a flat, are single households, compared to a general average of improvement of accessibility ), with additional expenses 43 %. But only 7 % of households are living in accessible of EUR 18 billion for age-adapted living standards. and above will sharply increase, doubling every 25 years. increasing social and economic polarisation, both within In the next 30 years, this age group will represent more than and between them. The recent financial and economic crisis 10 % of the population in many EU cities. – whose negative effects have yet to completely unfold – has left many European cities in a poor state, accelerating Intra-urban dynamics, i.e. the relative decline or growth the polarisation process and putting the European urban of core or inner cities compared to their larger functional development model to the test. areas, are as important to consider and understand as overall growth or decline. Most cities in Europe, especially in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, have witnessed 2.2.1. Eu ropean cities follow very different a process of suburbanisation with faster growth outside development trajectories of city centres, whilst the situation is the opposite in cities in especially the UK, but also Germany, Austria and The economic development of a city is highly path- Northern Italy, where the core cities have grown faster dependent and is affected very much by its previous history than their suburbs. By contrast, in Eastern Europe, with of economic specialisation and institutional development. a few exceptions ( e.g. Warsaw and Prague ), cities are Each European city follows its own individual development characterised by a decline of their population coupled with trajectory. These trajectories can be more or less sensitive 52 an intense process of suburbanisation. to external influences and shocks – depending on cities’ resilience and resistance to external events – and are also altered by public policy interventions. 2.2. D iagnosis : economic development and The diversity of European cities in terms of size, demographic mix, as well as economic, social and competitiveness under threat cultural heritage, gives them very different possibilities Europe is no longer in a situation of continuous economic for changing their development trajectory. However, and demographic growth. The decline or disappearance of as competition increases, cities have tried to improve traditional manufacturing industries has led to the loss of their respective position by developing and attracting skilled manufacturing jobs and a mismatch between labour economic activities by establishing strategic visions, market supply and demand. With increasing immigration endeavouring to involve key economic players, improving and mobility, pressures on national welfare systems and the quality of life for professionals, and developing centres more vulnerable labour markets, European cities face of creativity, etc. 51 According to an expert commission set up in December 2008 by the German Association for Housing, Urban and Spatial Development – supported by the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development. 52 ESPON FOCI Final Scientific Report, Chapter 2, op.cit. 18Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward Nevertheless, many studies have shown that the economic the long-term unemployed, face serious difficulties in growth of cities is frequently embedded in national upgrading their skills and reintegrating into the labour economic systems and is often strongly related to the market. Moreover, the present growth model, with its development of the latter. Seventy-four per cent of the decoupling of economic growth from employment, has led differences in growth ( in GDP ) between individual cities in to a larger share of the population being either pushed out Europe is accounted for by differences between the growth of the labour market or having to accept low-wage jobs in rates of different countries, and just twenty-six per cent by the non-qualified service sectors. For instance, the evolution the differences between growth rates of cities in the same of jobs in Belgium between 1991 and 2001 shows a net gain 53 country. There is, however, a marked difference between of skilled jobs of around nearly 60 000, but these new jobs large cities’ growth in EU-12 and EU-15. The largest cities are outweighed by the massive loss of 230 000  manual in EU-15 Member States grew marginally faster than cities jobs. Cities like Liège and Charleroi have experienced net as a whole within their countries in the period 1995-2001 losses in both categories of jobs, although the proportion 55 and grew at about the same rate in the 2001-06 period. of skilled jobs has increased. However, the largest cities in the EU-12 Member States grew 54 significantly faster in both periods. The public sector in many European countries is reducing budgets through direct layoffs and increased reliance on the private sector. In some cities with a high proportion of 2.2.2. A skill base under threat public sector jobs, this may cause serious problems if there is no private sector demand. The evolution of the vast majority of European cities’ skill bases has been dependent on the changing organisation of industrial production and the increasing service content of both inputs and outputs, ranging from research and development to maintenance, much of which relies on a qualified workforce. The loss of manufacturing jobs has not only reduced the demand for low-skilled labour, but also affected demand for high-skilled jobs. A considerable portion of the high-level services that cities have tried to develop in recent decades has been related to the financial sector, including the legal and accounting services that feed into it. The financial sector has been considered a key part of the knowledge economy, but its utility for economies as a whole has been increasingly called into question by the financial and economic crisis. The loss of manufacturing jobs is difficult to compensate with the creation of new, more highly skilled and competitive jobs. The transition to a more qualified labour force is difficult, as the low-skilled unemployed, especially 53 ESPON–FOCI, final r eport, p. 44 ; GDP is measured in purchasing power standard. 54 ESPON–FOCI final r eport, pp. 44–5. 55 V an Hamme, Gilles, Wertz, Isaline and Biot, Valérie, ‘Economic growth devoid of social progress : the situation in Brussels’ in BrusselsStudies (w ww.brusselsstudies.be ) issue 48, 28 March 2011. Based on 1991 population census ; 2001 Socioeconomic Survey ; INS ( National Statistical Institute ). 19GLIWICE – Using regional funds to support local SMEs and economic revitalisation of the city With 192 000 inhabitants, Gliwice is the second largest city Chamber of Commerce, etc. ) are working together in the Upper Silesian industrial region, one of the main to ensure this support continues. Their activities industrial zones of Poland. Following the initial difficult focus on training and advisory programmes for target years of political and institutional restructuring following groups ( unemployed, NGOs, young people, etc. ) and transition towards market economy, Gliwice managed also physical investment projects ( abandoned mine to turn things around and today is in a strong position. reconstruction, Technology Park construction, etc. ). It has managed to attract large companies to the area, As an example of a city that relies heavily on EU funds, including Opel, NGK Ceramics, Mecalux and Roca. Gliwice illustrates the various sides of this funding. However, support is also vital for SMEs, representing 99 % The general aim of the city – to address the priorities of enterprises in Gliwice, and knowledge-based activities, and demands established by the EU – tends to favour notably the Technical University and research centres. standardised projects rather than tailored projects The municipality, its agencies ( Local Development based on local assessments. Thus, close coordination Agency, NGO centre ), the Silesian Association of Support in areas such as programme monitoring and impact for Enterprises and other bodies ( Technology Park, analysis is needed at city level. 20