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Published Date:04-07-2017
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The voices of people who move in the context of environmental changeWe were trapped in the house for two days until someone came and rescued us in a boat, and we were taken to the “ local gymnasium which was being used as an evacuation centre. We stayed there for a week but it was so crowded that we decided to leave and go back to the ruins of our house. It proved impossible to live there as well, so we left after another week and spent the next five weeks staying with relatives. I don’t know what the future holds. We are not allowed to go back and live in the place where our old house stood as the government says it’s at risk of flooding if there is another typhoon. We will have to find somewhere else to live and build a house there, but I don’t know when.” 2 Rosalie Ticala, 33, mother of six, Philippines, Mindanao IslandWe were used to flooding, usually it would come up to here … This time was different: the electricity “ was cut off, it was dark and the water came quickly. We went up to the second floor and the water kept coming. The flood was a tragedy for everyone. I lost one of my grandchildren and my younger sister. Early the next morning, rescue workers came with boats and they took us to an evacuation centre. Everyone had to leave. Before the typhoon we had a shop selling food and groceries.” 3 Venus Torres, 48, PhilippinesContext The Philippines is especially vulnerable to remittances into the Philippines which now natural hazards such as tropical cyclones accounts for over 11% of GDP. With increasing (especially in the northern and eastern parts exposure to disasters at home, this flow of of the country), floods (central Luzon and remittances from abroad has provided some Southern Mindanao), landslides (due to the financial stability for families affected by 4 terrain of the country), and droughts. Since disasters. Internal displacement remains a key the 1980s these hazards have become more problem. This displacement has a number of devastating as cyclones and rainfall have causes including conflict and development intensified despite the number of rainy days projects. Three million people were internally 5 and total annual rainfall decreasing. displaced between 2000-2009 due to conflict 8 and human rights abuses. Disasters are now The Philippines battles with high levels of the most significant factor driving internal 9 poverty and inequality. The proportion of displacement. households living below the official poverty line has declined very slowly and unevenly Over recent years, the Philippines population in the past four decades, and poverty have experienced severe floods, landslides, reduction has been much slower than in drought and forest fires. This is having a neighbouring countries. Unsteady economic devastating effect on agriculture, freshwater, growth, growing inequality and exposure coastal and marine resources, health and 10 to environmental disasters are factors that livelihoods for the poorest communities. 6 contribute to continued poverty. These disasters have also created widespread displacement. The vast majority of this These forces have shaped patterns of movement has been internal, rather than cross 11 migration and displacement in the Philippines. border. The connection between tropical In 2009 nearly 10% of its citizens were storms and climate change remains complex 7 living outside the Philippines. This overseas and to some extent unclear. Determining the workforce has created a powerful flow of extent to which climate change has played a role in recent displacements in the Philippines is therefore difficult. Evidence does indicate that the number of severe tropical cyclones 12 is higher in warmer years. Future hurricanes may ‘upstage’ recent storms as higher global 13 temperatures lead to more powerful storms. Sea surface temperature is one of the key factors effecting hurricane formation, and warmer seas may provide more energy for hurricanes when they form. However there are other major factors currently influencing the frequency and intensity of hurricanes that may not be linked to climate change. Modelling suggests that globally the number of hurricanes may decrease or remain the same, but the intensity and the number 14 of severe storms may increase. However predicting changes to hurricane activity in individual ocean basins is still difficult and uncertain. Regardless of the connection to climate change, for many hundreds of thousands of people, displacement due to disasters has become a reality. Tropical storm Washi, known in the Philippines as Sendong, hit the coast on 16 December 2011. It killed more than 1,500 people, damaged over 50,000 homes and displaced some 430,900 people. The greatest impact was felt in and around the cities of Cagayan de Oro, where over half the population (461,877) was displaced, and Iligan, where approximately one third of the 15 population (285,061) was displaced. Just a year later another devastating storm hit the Philippines. Cyclone Bopha killed several hundred people, displaced in the region of 200,000 and destroyed some 28,000 16 homes. 1 Thomson Reuters Foundation. 2012. Governor of typhoon-hit Philippines province Accessed 19 March 2013. appeals for aid extension. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 19 9 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. 2013. Country page: Philippines ONLINE August 13. Available at: Accessed 19 March 2013. 2 Thomson Reuters Foundation. 2012. Typhoon survivor Rosalie tells her story in 10 Defense Language Institute Foreign Language Centre, 2011. Philippines in perspective Philippines. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 19 August 13. and orientation guide. 1st ed. Manila: DLIFLC . 3 Thomson Reuters Foundation. 2012. Rebuilding lives after Typhoon Washi in Philippines. 11 UN Refugee Agency. 2013. Philippines. 2013 UNHCR regional operations profile - South- ONLINE Available at: Accessed 19 August 13. East Asia. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 23 August 13. 4 Anshory Yusuf, A; Francisco, H, 2009. Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for 12 Grinsteda, A; Moorea, JC; Jevrejevaa, S, 2012. Homogeneous record of Atlantic Southeast Asia. 1st ed. Singapore: Economy and Environment Program for Southeast hurricane surge threat since 1923. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of Asia. the United States of America PNAS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 5 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) 13 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. 2013. Global Warming and Hurricanes. (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the ONLINE Available at: Accessed 19 March 2013. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and 14 Knutson, T; McBride, R; Chan, J; Emanuel, K; Holland, G; Landsea, C; Held, I; Kossin, New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, P 473-476. J P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Sugi, M, 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature 6 Asian Development Bank, 2009. Poverty in the Philippines: causes, constraints, and Geoscience, P 3, 157 - 163. opportunities. 1st ed. Manila: Asian Development Bank. 15 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2013. Disaster-induced internal displacement 7 Office of the President of the Philippines. Commission on Filipinos overseas. 2011. Stock in the Philippines: the case of Tropical Storm Washi/Sendong. 1st ed. Geneva: IDMC. Estimate of Overseas Filipinos. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 16 Thomson Reuters. 2013. CARE responds to Cyclone Bopha in the Philippines. ONLINE 23 August 13. Available at: Accessed 23 August 13. 8 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. 2012. Up to 3 million people displaced by conflict and human rights abuses between 2000 and 2009. ONLINE Available at: Rains recently have been very intense – very intense. Without comparison, “ like nothing seen before. Years ago the rainy season lasted two months, November and December, and water levels reached 20 to 30 Centimetres. Now, in the last six to seven months, they’ve reached over two metres. We’ve never seen this before. We don’t want to leave our land: here are our past, our memories, our ancestors. We don’t want to move to other parts, we don’t know what to do there. We would turn into delinquents. We’d enter into a cycle of poverty which happens in the cities.” 1 Octavio Rodriguez, Las Caracuchas, Sucre, ColombiaI am very worried. The snow and ice are disappearing and melting day by day, year by year. The sun is “ stronger. It doesn’t snow as much. We are very concerned … There could be a tremendous drought. There might be no more snow, no more water coming down. So how would we irrigate our plots of land? My son would have to leave and go somewhere else, to other countries.” 2 Lucia Quispe, 38, Khapi, Bolivia“ When I was young, it was quite mild, not such a hot heat. That’s why Illimani is melting. It’s three times as “ hot. It did not used to be so hot. I am very sad when I see the snowline going up. I don’t want it to be like that. I don’t have any children, but other compañeros in the community, they do have children. They are going to suffer the last days, if there is no water. I am 67 years old, and I am not going to suffer as I am going to die. But the other villagers, yes they will suffer. That’s why I am so upset that there is not going to be any water. I am going to live another ten to fifteen years, but the others … I am not going to see it. But the young will witness the end of Illimani.” 2 Marcos Choque, 67, Khapi, BoliviaMy grandfather, father and I have worked these lands. But times have changed … The rain is “ coming later now, so that we produce less. The only solution is to go away, at least for a while. Each year I’m working for 3 to 5 months in Wyoming. That’s my main source of income. But leaving my village forever? No. I was raised here and here I will stay.” 3 Miguel, 45, Hueyotlipan, MexicoContext The Latin American region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Many of its countries are located in the hurricane belt; others depend on the thaw of the snow and ice deposits in the Andes to supply water to their urban and agricultural sectors; and several are at high risk from major disasters 4 such as floods. Since 1998, the melting ice from the ice fields in Patagonia has contributed to around 2% of the global annual 5 sea level rise. The region has experienced climate variability and more extreme weather events over recent years, such as intense Venezuelan rainfall (1999, 2005), flooding in Argentina (2000-2002, 2007), Amazon drought (2005), hail storms in Bolivia (2002) and the Greater Buenos Aires area (2006), the unprecedented Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlantic (2004) and the record hurricane season of 2005 in the Caribbean 6 7 Basin, extreme floods in El Salvador (2011), Tropical storm Matthew in Venezuela (2010) 8 and a series of floods in Colombia (2011). Predicted increases in temperature will severely affect this region and its arable lands. Significantly, 90% of Latin America’s 9 agriculture is rainfed. A survey of rural populations in Peru found that changing rainfall patterns had a ‘severe’ effect on 53% 10 of respondents’ ability to produce food. Other stresses compound the ability of this region to adapt to climatic changes. Demographic pressures as a result of rural to urban migration have led to unemployment and unsanitary conditions, resulting in the 11 spread of infectious diseases. Additionally, over-exploitation is a threat to local production systems and has led to water exploitation and the mismanagement of irrigation systems. Similarly deforestation from agricultural expansion in parts of Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and Brazil has 11 caused land degradation. Historically (prior to the 1970s) many Latin The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate American countries were the destination for Change predicts that migration from the 12 14 European migrants and had net immigration, countryside to the cities will continue. Whilst a situation which has reversed in recent there are inevitably a range of factors that decades. The debt crisis of the 1980s led to lead people to migrate, the impact of climate the so called ‘lost decade’; industrialisation, change, especially if livelihoods are damaged, growth in the extractive industries and may intensify rural-urban migration. The large-scale intensive agriculture were all significance of this is that urban areas will economic drivers of migration. Flow followed need to adapt to both climatic changes and the pattern of urbanisation and emigration an increase in population. to the EU. In 2006 a third of Argentines claimed they would emigrate if they had 12 the resources to do so. In Ecuador the top destination of internal migrants is to newly deforested areas, which are sites of intensive agriculture and jobs. Conflict is another main driver of migratory flows, especially in regards to Columbians fleeing the violence caused by the FARC / government fighting. The number of government- registered ‘internally displaced persons’ (IDPs) in Colombia rose to 3.9 million in 2010/11, making it the world’s largest internally displaced 13 population. 1 Refugees International. (2012). Colombia: Two Years Under Water. Online Video. 27 Results from Huancayo Province, Junín Region. Report No. 5. Bonn: United Nations March. Available from: Accessed 23 August 2013. University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). 2 Oxfam Bolivia, 2009. Bolivia Climate change, poverty and adaptation. 1st ed. La Paz: 11 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) Oxfam. (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the 3 Faist, F; Alsher, S, 2009. EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and Scenarios. Mexico case study report. 1st ed. Stockholm: EACH-FOR. New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 13, 13.7 4 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010. Climate change: 12 Alverez Gila, A, 2009. EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration a regional perspective. Unity Summit of Latin America and the Caribbean. 1st ed. Scenarios. Ecuador case study report. 1st ed. Stockholm: EACH-FOR. Mexico City: ECLAC. 13 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. 2013. Colombia: Improved government 5 World Bank. 2012. Climate Change: Is Latin America prepared for temperatures to rise response yet to have impact for IDPs. ONLINE Available at: 4 degrees?. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 23 August 13. Accessed 23 August 13. 6 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) 14 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 13, 13.2.2. New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 13, 13.7. 7 BBC News. 2011. Central America floods and landslides ‘leave 80 dead’. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 23 August 13. 8 Garlati , A, 2013. Climate Change and extreme weather events in Latin America: an exposure index. 1st ed. Washington: Inter-American Development Bank. 9 Hoffman, M; Grigera, A, 2013. Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in the Amazon and the Andes: Rising Tensions and Policy Options in South America. 1st ed. Washington: Centre for American Progress. 10 Ho, Raúl, and Andrea Milan (2012). “Where the Rain Falls” project. Case study: Peru. The rains came in the middle of the night, while most people were sleeping. When we woke up, “ there was water of about 2-3 feet and we did not know how to escape, because our village is far from the main road. The water was very dirty because the floods had damaged our sanitation and water facilities. I was very pregnant at the time, and our livestock are our livelihood so we didn’t want to leave them to die, so we did not know what to do. We were rescued in boats by the army and NGOs. We are thankful to be alive, but we lost our livestock and now we are trying to rebuild our livelihood by starting from the beginning.” 1 Fatay and Zulaikar, husband and wife of a pastoralist family in Badin district“ I go to get registered as an IDP and they dismiss me. I don't want to live here. I don't want my children out on “ the streets. In my village I have little but I look after my family. They throw food at me like I am a beggar. I have never begged for anything in my life, why do they treat me like this?” 2 Shauquat Ali, displaced tenant farmer and father of nineThe water came at night and we didn’t have time to save our belongings; we had to choose whether “ to save our children and ourselves or our property and assets, so we chose to save our kids. We left everything and ran to save our lives.” 3 Unnamed survivor of the 2010 floodsContext 11 Pakistan is highly exposed to the impacts of migrate. The International Federation of Red climate change. The IPCC have associated Cross (IFRC) put the number of displaced increasing temperatures with the severity of people at 250,000. The total number of 12 the monsoon rains and predict an increase in people affected stands at 4.4 million. 4 severity. Northern Pakistan faces increased 5 risk of flooding and landslides. An increase Floods and natural disasters cause of cyclonic activity will impact Southern considerable forced migration within Pakistan. 5 Pakistan and the city of Karachi is at high Pakistan receives roughly 8% of the total risk from sea-level rise, prolonged cyclonic global funding available for dealing with 5 activity, and greater salt-water intrusion. displacement. There are 745,000 IDPs , the Pakistan’s vulnerability is increased due to majority fleeing from fighting in Federally 12 its reliance upon water from the Indus river Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). But and tributaries, which supply two thirds despite such a large IDP population, Pakistan of the water the county uses for irrigation is also a destination for international migrants 6 and domestic use. The Indus is fed by the in the region. It is the top destination for 13 Himalayan glaciers, which are receding Somali refugees. There are currently 1.6 significantly, with the likelihood of them million Afghan refugees in Pakistan. The 7 disappearing by the year 2035. Other factors country is currently experiencing the world’s 14 make Pakistan vulnerable to the impacts of largest protracted refugee situation. climate change. Nearly half of the population is dependent on agricultural livelihoods; As well as vast numbers of displacees and the there is considerable rural poverty, urban absorption of neighbouring refugees, Pakistan unrest, land degradation and shortfalls in also has a long history of voluntary migration, 8 food production. Further urbanisation and which is largely split between unskilled industrialisation place more pressure upon labourers travelling to the Emirates and Dubai water supplies which are already threatened and more skilled workers heading for Europe by climate change. and the US. Pakistani diasporas are amongst the largest and most extensive in the world, In July 2010, Pakistan was affected by heavy supplying remittances to families in Pakistan 15 monsoon rains, which led to massive flooding of 12 billion a year. The IPCC predicted that in the Indus River basin. More than 10 million “circular migration patterns, such as those people were displaced, with about 20% of punctuated by shocks of migrants following the country under water. The death toll was extreme weather events, could be expected”. around 2,000. The provision of international This is supported by the Asia Development aid was widely considered insufficient, with Bank which suggests that “environmental millions of farmers housed in refugee camps, factors are already an important driver in 9 and crops and cattle destroyed. Flooding migration” and that “floods, cyclones and struck again in 2011. The disaster affected desertification have led in recent years to 18 million people and destroyed 1.7 million significant population movements, mostly 10 15 homes. from rural to urban areas”. In August 2012 following the monsoon floods, the region of Tharparkar experienced significant drought, forcing 600,000 people dependent on rainfed agriculture to internally 1 Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN). 2012. Disaster-proofing your 8 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) village before the floods – the case of Sindh, Pakistan. ONLINE Available at: http:// (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Accessed 21 August 13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and 2 Aljazeera. 2010. Pakistan flood victims need dignity as much as aid. ONLINE New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Available at: 9 Asian Development Bank, 2012. Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and dignity-much-aid. Accessed 21 August 13. the Pacific. 1st ed. Manila: ADB. 3 World Food Programme. 2012. Pakistan Flood Victims “Left With Nothing”. ONLINE 10 Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aairs. 20 ff 11. Pakistan Media Factsheet. Available at: Accessed 21 August 13. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 21 August 13. 4 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) 11 Shaikh, S; Tunio, S, 2012. Extreme weather in Pakistan pulls many into downward (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the spiral. Thomson Reuters Foundation, 1 October. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and 12 International Organisation for Migration, 2012. IOM Pakistan response - six months on. New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. 1st ed. Islamabad: IOM.w 5 Asian Development Bank, 2012. Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and 13 Zetter, R (Eds), 2012. World Disasters Report. Focus on Forced Migration and the Pacific. 1st ed. Manila: ADB. Displacement. 1st ed. Geneva: International Federation of Red Cross and Red 6 Pangare, G., Das, B., Lincklaen Arriens, W., and Makin, I. (2012). WaterWealth? Crescent Societies. Investing in Basin Management in Asia and the Pacific. New Delhi, India: Academic 14 United Nations High Commission for Refugees. 2013. 2013 UNHCR country operations Foundation. profile - Pakistan. ONLINE Available at: Accessed 21 August 7 M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds) 13. (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the 15 Asian Development Bank, 2012. Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge, United Kingdom and the Pacific. 1st ed. Manila: ADB. New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.“ The majority of I-Kiribati have no wish to live in another country, but mounting evidence “ suggests that we may soon have little choice. Therefore migration may become the key part of the way we are forced to ‘adapt’ … But, there’s a problem. Unlike our neighbours in Tuvalu (with a population of about 10,000) we have no significant or sympathetic migration relationship or policy with any country.” 1 Linda Uan, KiribatiCarterets’ people are facing, and will continue to face, many challenges as we relocate from our “ ancestral grounds. However, our plan is one in which we remain as independent and self-sufficient as possible. We wish to maintain our cultural identity and live sustainably wherever we are.” 2 Ursula Rakova, Carteret IslandsContext The Pacific islands are recognised as being especially vulnerable to the effects of climate 3 change. As small, often remote, land masses surrounded by ocean, they are commonly beset with rapid-onset natural hazards such as tsunamis, cyclones, flooding, volcanic 4 eruptions and earthquakes. They are also affected by slow-onset disasters such as soil erosion, droughts, coral bleaching, and salinisation of soils and water. Climate change is likely to exacerbate both slow- and rapid- onset disasters, with consequential negative 4 effects on livelihoods. People living in the Pacific Islands are experiencing changes in their climate such as higher temperatures, more extreme cyclonic activity, shifts in rainfall patterns and rising 5 sea levels. The effects of climate change are very significant. Rising sea levels are leading to sea incursion, coastal erosion and storm surges. Given the size of small islands and the fact that communities commonly live 5 near the coast, infrastructure, homes and factors which limit climate adaptability, the livelihoods of Island communities are including dependence upon subsistence 5 greatly threatened. Many small islands have agriculture, natural and economic resources, limited freshwater resources. A reduction in small populations, remoteness, dependence rainfall coupled with a rise in sea level would upon international trade and lack of 8 seriously compromise water availability, infrastructure. The World Bank found that in which would have an impact on agriculture, the absence of adaptation, a high island such 6 livelihoods and the ecosystem. For example, as Viti Levu, Fiji, could experience damages of 9 in the Pacific, a 10% reduction in average US23 million to 52 million a year by 2050. A rainfall (by 2050) would lead to a 20% group of low islands such as Tarawa, Kiribati, reduction in the size of the freshwater on could face average annual damages of more 7 9 Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. Climate change is than US8 million to 16 million per year. also affecting fishing and coral reefs, which in turn impact on the livelihoods of island Historically economic migration, both internal communities and reduce tourism, a source of and external, has been a feature within 10 income for many Pacific Island states. Pacific Island communities. Resettlement and within-country schemes have also been The Pacific islands clearly have a high common in the last decades such as with vulnerability to climate change with a low migration from the Cartaret Islands in Papua adaptive capacity. There are a range of New Guinea to Bougainville, and from the

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