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psychology of intelligence analysis summary and revisiting the psychology of intelligence analysis from rational actors to adaptive thinkers
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Published Date:03-07-2017
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Foreword 1 By Douglas MacEachin My first exposure to Dick Heuer’s work was about 18 years ago, and I have never forgotten the strong impression it made on me then. That was at about the midpoint in my own career as an intelligence analyst. After another decade and a half of experience, and the opportunity dur- ing the last few years to study many historical cases with the benefit of archival materials from the former USSR and Warsaw Pact regimes, read- ing Heuer’s latest presentation has had even more resonance. I know from first-hand encounters that many CIA officers tend to react skeptically to treatises on analytic epistemology. This is understand - able. Too often, such treatises end up prescribing models as answers to the problem. These models seem to have little practical value to intelligence analysis, which takes place not in a seminar but rather in a fast-breaking world of policy. But that is not the main problem Heuer is addressing. What Heuer examines so clearly and effectively is how the human thought process builds its own models through which we process infor- mation. This is not a phenomenon unique to intelligence; as Heuer’s research demonstrates, it is part of the natural functioning of the human cognitive process, and it has been demonstrated across a broad range of fields ranging from medicine to stock market analysis. The process of analysis itself reinforces this natural function of the human brain. Analysis usually involves creating models, even though they may not be labeled as such. We set forth certain understandings and expectations about cause-and-effect relationships and then process and interpret information through these models or filters. The discussion in Chapter 5 on the limits to the value of additional information deserves special attention, in my view—particularly for an 1. Douglas MacEachin is a former CIA Deputy Director of Intelligence. After 32 years with the Agency, he retired in 1997 and became a Senior Fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. ixintelligence organization. What it illustrates is that too often, newly ac- quired information is evaluated and processed through the existing ana- lytic model, rather than being used to reassess the premises of the model itself. The detrimental effects of this natural human tendency stem from the raison d’etre of an organization created to acquire special, critical in- formation available only through covert means, and to produce analysis integrating this special information with the total knowledge base. I doubt that any veteran intelligence officer will be able to read this book without recalling cases in which the mental processes described by Heuer have had an adverse impact on the quality of analysis. How many times have we encountered situations in which completely plausible premises, based on solid expertise, have been used to construct a logically valid forecast—with virtually unanimous agreement—that turned out to be dead wrong? In how many of these instances have we determined, with hindsight, that the problem was not in the logic but in the fact that one of the premises—however plausible it seemed at the time—was incorrect? In how many of these instances have we been forced to admit that the erroneous premise was not empirically based but rather a conclu- sion developed from its own model (sometimes called an assumption)? And in how many cases was it determined after the fact that information had been available which should have provided a basis for questioning one or more premises, and that a change of the relevant premise(s) would have changed the analytic model and pointed to a different outcome? The commonly prescribed remedy for shortcomings in intelligence analysis and estimates—most vociferously after intelligence “failures”—is a major increase in expertise. Heuer’s research and the studies he cites pose a serious challenge to that conventional wisdom. The data show that expertise itself is no protection from the common analytic pitfalls that are endemic to the human thought process. This point has been demon - strated in many fields beside intelligence analysis. A review of notorious intelligence failures demonstrates that the an- alytic traps caught the experts as much as anybody. Indeed, the data show that when experts fall victim to these traps, the effects can be aggravated by the confidence that attaches to expertise—both in their own view and in the perception of others. These observations should in no way be construed as a denigration of the value of expertise. On the contrary, my own 30-plus years in the business of intelligence analysis biased me in favor of the view that, end- xless warnings of information overload notwithstanding, there is no such thing as too much information or expertise. And my own observations of CIA analysts sitting at the same table with publicly renowned experts have given me great confidence that attacks on the expertise issue are grossly misplaced. The main difference is that one group gets to promote its reputations in journals, while the other works in a closed environment in which the main readers are members of the intelligence world’s most challenging audience—the policymaking community. The message that comes through in Heuer’s presentation is that in - formation and expertise are a necessary but not sufficient means of mak - ing intelligence analysis the special product that it needs to be. A compa- rable effort has to be devoted to the science of analysis. This effort has to start with a clear understanding of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the primary analytic mechanism—the human mind—and the way it processes information. I believe there is a significant cultural element in how intelligence analysts define themselves: Are we substantive experts employed by CIA, or are we professional analysts and intelligence officers whose expertise lies in our ability to adapt quickly to diverse issues and problems and analyze them effectively? In the world at large, substantive expertise is far more abundant than expertise on analytic science and the human mental processing of information. Dick Heuer makes clear that the pitfalls the hu- man mental process sets for analysts cannot be eliminated; they are part of us. What can be done is to train people how to look for and recognize these mental obstacles, and how to develop procedures designed to offset them. Given the centrality of analytic science for the intelligence mission, a key question that Heuer’s book poses is: Compared with other areas of our business, have we committed a commensurate effort to the study of analytic science as a professional requirement? How do the effort and re - source commitments in this area compare to, for example, the effort and commitment to the development of analysts’ writing skills? Heuer’s book does not pretend to be the last word on this issue. Hopefully, it will be a stimulant for much more work. xiIntroduction Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA: Dick Heuer’s Contribution to Intelligence Analysis  by Jack Davis I applaud CIA’s Center for the Study of Intelligence for making the work of Richards J. Heuer, Jr. on the psychology of intelligence analysis available to a new generation of intelligence practitioners and scholars. Dick Heuer’s ideas on how to improve analysis focus on helping analysts compensate for the human mind’s limitations in dealing with complex problems that typically involve ambiguous information, multi- ple players, and fluid circumstances. Such multi-faceted estimative chal - lenges have proliferated in the turbulent post-Cold War world. Heuer’s message to analysts can be encapsulated by quoting two sentences from Chapter 4 of this book: Intelligence analysts should be self-conscious about their rea- soning processes. They should think about how they make judgments and reach conclusions, not just about the judgments and conclusions themselves. Heuer’s ideas are applicable to any analytical endeavor. In this Introduction, I have concentrated on his impact—and that of other pio- neer thinkers in the intelligence analysis field—at CIA, because that is the institution that Heuer and his predecessors, and I myself, know best, having spent the bulk of our intelligence careers there. 2. Jack Davis served with the Directorate of Intelligence (DI), the National Intelligence Council, and the Office of Training during his CIA career. He is now an independent contrac - tor who specializes in developing and teaching analytic tradecraft. Among his publications is Uncertainty, Surprise, and Warning (1996). xiiiLeading Contributors to Quality of Analysis Intelligence analysts, in seeking to make sound judgments, are al- ways under challenge from the complexities of the issues they address and from the demands made on them for timeliness and volume of pro- duction. Four Agency individuals over the decades stand out for having made major contributions on how to deal with these challenges to the quality of analysis. My short list of the people who have had the greatest positive im- pact on CIA analysis consists of Sherman Kent, Robert Gates, Douglas MacEachin, and Richards Heuer. My selection methodology was simple. I asked myself: Whose insights have influenced me the most during my four decades of practicing, teaching, and writing about analysis? Sherman Kent Sherman Kent’s pathbreaking contributions to analysis cannot be done justice in a couple of paragraphs, and I refer readers to fuller treat- 3 ments elsewhere. Here I address his general legacy to the analytical pro- fession. Kent, a professor of European history at Yale, worked in the Research and Analysis branch of the Office of Strategic Services during World War II. He wrote an influential book, Strategic Intelligence for American World Power, while at the National War College in the late 1940s. He served as Vice Chairman and then as Chairman of the DCI’s Board of National Estimates from 1950 to 1967. Kent’s greatest contribution to the quality of analysis was to define an honorable place for the analyst—the thoughtful individual “applying the instruments of reason and the scientific method”—in an intelligence world then as now dominated by collectors and operators. In a second (1965) edition of Strategic Intelligence, Kent took account of the coming computer age as well as human and technical collectors in proclaiming the centrality of the analyst: Whatever the complexities of the puzzles we strive to solve and whatever the sophisticated techniques we may use to collect 3. See, in particular, the editor’s unclassified introductory essay and “Tribute” by Harold P. Ford in Donald P. Steury, Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays (CIA, Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1994). Hereinafter cited as Steury, Kent. xivthe pieces and store them, there can never be a time when the thoughtful man can be supplanted as the intelligence device supreme. More specifically, Kent advocated application of the techniques of “scientific” study of the past to analysis of complex ongoing situations and estimates of likely future events. Just as rigorous “impartial” analysis could cut through the gaps and ambiguities of information on events long past and point to the most probable explanation, he contended, the powers of the critical mind could turn to events that had not yet trans- 4 pired to determine the most probable developments. To this end, Kent developed the concept of the analytic pyramid, featuring a wide base of factual information and sides comprised of sound assumptions, which pointed to the most likely future scenario at 5 the apex. In his proselytizing and in practice, Kent battled against bureaucrat- ic and ideological biases, which he recognized as impediments to sound analysis, and against imprecise estimative terms that he saw as obstacles to conveying clear messages to readers. Although he was aware of what is now called cognitive bias, his writings urge analysts to “make the call” without much discussion of how limitations of the human mind were to be overcome. Not many Agency analysts read Kent nowadays. But he had a pro- found impact on earlier generations of analysts and managers, and his work continues to exert an indirect influence among practitioners of the analytic profession. Robert Gates Bob Gates served as Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (1986– 1989) and as DCI (1991–1993). But his greatest impact on the quality of CIA analysis came during his 1982–1986 stint as Deputy Director for Intelligence (DDI). 4. Sherman Kent, Writing History, second edition (1967). The first edition was published in 1941, when Kent was an assistant professor of history at Yale. In the first chapter, “Why History,” he presented ideas and recommendations that he later adapted for intelligence analy- sis. 5. Kent, “Estimates and Influence” (1968), in Steury, Kent. xvInitially schooled as a political scientist, Gates earned a Ph.D. in Soviet studies at Georgetown while working as an analyst at CIA. As a member of the National Security Council staff during the 1970s, he gained invaluable insight into how policymakers use intelligence anal- ysis. Highly intelligent, exceptionally hard-working, and skilled in the bureaucratic arts, Gates was appointed DDI by DCI William Casey in good part because he was one of the few insiders Casey found who shared the DCI’s views on what Casey saw as glaring deficiencies of Agency ana - 6 lysts. Few analysts and managers who heard it have forgotten Gates’ blis- tering criticism of analytic performance in his 1982 “inaugural” speech as DDI. Most of the public commentary on Gates and Agency analysis concerned charges of politicization levied against him, and his defense against such charges, during Senate hearings for his 1991 confirmation as DCI. The heat of this debate was slow to dissipate among CIA analysts, as reflected in the pages of Studies in Intelligence, the Agency journal 7 founded by Sherman Kent in the 1950s. I know of no written retrospective on Gates’ contribution to Agency analysis. My insights into his ideas about analysis came mostly through an arms-length collaboration in setting up and running an Agency training 8 course entitled “Seminar on Intelligence Successes and Failures.” During his tenure as DDI, only rarely could you hold a conversation with ana- lysts or managers without picking up additional viewpoints, thoughtful and otherwise, on what Gates was doing to change CIA analysis. Gates’s ideas for overcoming what he saw as insular, flabby, and in - coherent argumentation featured the importance of distinguishing be- tween what analysts know and what they believe—that is, to make clear what is “fact” (or reliably reported information) and what is the analyst’s opinion (which had to be persuasively supported with evidence). Among his other tenets were the need to seek the views of non-CIA experts, in- 6. Casey, very early in his tenure as DCI (1981-1987), opined to me that the trouble with Agency analysts is that they went from sitting on their rear ends at universities to sitting on their rear ends at CIA, without seeing the real world. 7. “The Gates Hearings: Politicization and Soviet Analysis at CIA”, Studies in Intelligence (Spring 1994). “Communication to the Editor: The Gates Hearings: A Biased Account,” Studies in Intelligence (Fall 1994). 8. DCI Casey requested that the Agency’s training office provide this seminar so that, at the least, analysts could learn from their own mistakes. DDI Gates carefully reviewed the statement of goals for the seminar, the outline of course units, and the required reading list. xvicluding academic specialists and policy officials, and to present alternate future scenarios. Gates’s main impact, though, came from practice—from his direct involvement in implementing his ideas. Using his authority as DDI, he reviewed critically almost all in-depth assessments and current intelli- gence articles prior to publication. With help from his deputy and two rotating assistants from the ranks of rising junior managers, Gates raised the standards for DDI review dramatically—in essence, from “looks good to me” to “show me your evidence.” As the many drafts Gates rejected were sent back to managers who had approved them—accompanied by the DDI’s comments about in- consistency, lack of clarity, substantive bias, and poorly supported judg- ments—the whole chain of review became much more rigorous. Analysts and their managers raised their standards to avoid the pain of DDI rejec- tion. Both career advancement and ego were at stake. The rapid and sharp increase in attention paid by analysts and man - agers to the underpinnings for their substantive judgments probably was without precedent in the Agency’s history. The longer term benefits of the intensified review process were more limited, however, because insuf - ficient attention was given to clarifying tradecraft practices that would promote analytic soundness. More than one participant in the process observed that a lack of guidelines for meeting Gates’s standards led to a large amount of “wheel-spinning.” Gates’s impact, like Kent’s, has to be seen on two planes. On the one hand, little that Gates wrote on the craft of analysis is read these days. But even though his pre-publication review process was discontinued under his successors, an enduring awareness of his standards still gives pause at jumping to conclusions to many managers and analysts who experienced his criticism first-hand. Douglas MacEachin Doug MacEachin, DDI from 1993 to 1996, sought to provide an essential ingredient for ensuring implementation of sound analytic stan- dards: corporate tradecraft standards for analysts. This new tradecraft was aimed in particular at ensuring that sufficient attention would be paid to cognitive challenges in assessing complex issues. xviiMacEachin set out his views on Agency analytical faults and correc- 9 tives in The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA. My commentary on his contributions to sound analysis is also informed by a series of exchanges with him in 1994 and 1995. MacEachin’s university major was economics, but he also showed great interest in philosophy. His Agency career—like Gates’—included an extended assignment to a policymaking office. He came away from this experience with new insights on what constitutes “value-added” in- telligence usable by policymakers. Subsequently, as CIA’s senior manager on arms control issues, he dealt regularly with a cadre of tough-minded policy officials who let him know in blunt terms what worked as effective policy support and what did not. By the time MacEachin became DDI in 1993, Gates’s policy of DDI front-office pre-publication review of nearly all DI analytical stud - ies had been discontinued. MacEachin took a different approach; he read—mostly on weekends—and reflected on numerous already-pub - lished DI analytical papers. He did not like what he found. In his words, roughly a third of the papers meant to assist the policymaking process had no discernible argumentation to bolster the credibility of intelligence judgments, and another third suffered from flawed argumentation. This experience, along with pressures on CIA for better analytic performance in the wake of alleged “intelligence failures” concerning Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, prompted his decision to launch a major new effort to raise 10 analytical standards. MacEachin advocated an approach to structured argumentation called “linchpin analysis,” to which he contributed muscular terms de- signed to overcome many CIA professionals’ distaste for academic no- menclature. The standard academic term “key variables” became driv- ers. “Hypotheses” concerning drivers became linchpins—assumptions underlying the argument—and these had to be explicitly spelled out. MacEachin also urged that greater attention be paid to analytical pro- cesses for alerting policymakers to changes in circumstances that would increase the likelihood of alternative scenarios. 9. Unclassified paper published in 1994 by the Working Group on Intelligence Reform, which had been created in 1992 by the Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, Washington, DC. 10. Discussion between MacEachin and the author of this Introduction, 1994. xviiiMacEachin thus worked to put in place systematic and transparent standards for determining whether analysts had met their responsibili- ties for critical thinking. To spread understanding and application of the standards, he mandated creation of workshops on linchpin analysis for managers and production of a series of notes on analytical tradecraft. He also directed that the DI’s performance on tradecraft standards be tracked and that recognition be given to exemplary assessments. Perhaps most ambitious, he saw to it that instruction on standards for analysis was incorporated into a new training course, “Tradecraft 2000.” Nearly all DI managers and analysts attended this course during 1996–97. As of this writing (early 1999), the long-term staying power of MacEachin’s tradecraft initiatives is not yet clear. But much of what he advocated has endured so far. Many DI analysts use variations on his linchpin concept to produce soundly argued forecasts. In the training realm, “Tradecraft 2000” has been supplanted by a new course that teach- es the same concepts to newer analysts. But examples of what MacEachin would label as poorly substantiated analysis are still seen. Clearly, ongo- ing vigilance is needed to keep such analysis from finding its way into DI products. Richards Heuer Dick Heuer was—and is—much less well known within the CIA than Kent, Gates, and MacEachin. He has not received the wide acclaim that Kent enjoyed as the father of professional analysis, and he has lacked the bureaucratic powers that Gates and MacEachin could wield as DDIs. But his impact on the quality of Agency analysis arguably has been at least as important as theirs. Heuer received a degree in philosophy in 1950 from Williams College, where, he notes, he became fascinated with the fundamental epistemological question, “What is truth and how can we know it?” In 1951, while a graduate student at the University of California’s Berkeley campus, he was recruited as part of the CIA’s buildup during the Korean War. The recruiter was Richard Helms, OSS veteran and rising player in the Agency’s clandestine service. Future DCI Helms, according to Heuer, was looking for candidates for CIA employment among recent graduates of Williams College, his own alma mater. Heuer had an added advantage xixas a former editor of the college’s newspaper, a position Helms had held 11 some 15 years earlier. In 1975, after 24 years in the Directorate of Operations, Heuer moved to the DI. His earlier academic interest in how we know the truth was rekindled by two experiences. One was his involvement in the con- troversial case of Soviet KGB defector Yuriy Nosenko. The other was learning new approaches to social science methodology while earning a Master’s degree in international relations at the University of Southern California’s European campus. At the time he retired in 1979, Heuer headed the methodology unit in the DI’s political analysis office. He originally prepared most of the chapters in this book as individual articles between 1978 and 1986; many of them were written for the DI after his retirement. He has updated the articles and prepared some new material for inclusion in this book. Heuer’s Central Ideas Dick Heuer’s writings make three fundamental points about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face: • The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations). • Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an al - ready-held judgment more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty. • Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectu- 11. Letter to the author of this Introduction, 1998. xxal devices include techniques for structuring information, chal- lenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations. The following passage from Heuer’s 1980 article entitled “Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There to be Seen?” shows that his ideas were similar to or compatible with MacEachin’s concepts of linchpin analy- sis. Given the difficulties inherent in the human processing of com - plex information, a prudent management system should: • Encourage products that (a) clearly delineate their as- sumptions and chains of inference and (b) specify the degree and source of the uncertainty involved in the conclusions. • Emphasize procedures that expose and elaborate al- ternative points of view—analytic debates, devil’s ad- vocates, interdisciplinary brainstorming, competitive analysis, intra-office peer review of production, and elicitation of outside expertise. Heuer emphasizes both the value and the dangers of mental models, or mind-sets. In the book’s opening chapter, entitled “Thinking About Thinking,” he notes that: Analysts construct their own version of “reality” on the ba- sis of information provided by the senses, but this sensory in- put is mediated by complex mental processes that determine which information is attended to, how it is organized, and the meaning attributed to it. What people perceive, how readily they perceive it, and how they process this information after receiving it are all strongly influenced by past experience, edu - cation, cultural values, role requirements, and organizational norms, as well as by the specifics of the information received. This process may be visualized as perceiving the world through a lens or screen that channels and focuses and thereby may dis- tort the images that are seen. To achieve the clearest possible image . . . analysts need more than information . . . They also xxineed to understand the lenses through which this information passes. These lenses are known by many terms—mental mod - els, mind-sets, biases, or analytic assumptions. In essence, Heuer sees reliance on mental models to simplify and interpret reality as an unavoidable conceptual mechanism for intelligence analysts—often useful, but at times hazardous. What is required of ana- lysts, in his view, is a commitment to challenge, refine, and challenge again their own working mental models, precisely because these steps are cen- tral to sound interpretation of complex and ambiguous issues. Throughout the book, Heuer is critical of the orthodox prescription of “more and better information” to remedy unsatisfactory analytic per- formance. He urges that greater attention be paid instead to more inten- sive exploitation of information already on hand, and that in so doing, analysts continuously challenge and revise their mental models. Heuer sees mirror-imaging as an example of an unavoidable cogni- tive trap. No matter how much expertise an analyst applies to interpret- ing the value systems of foreign entities, when the hard evidence runs out the tendency to project the analyst’s own mind-set takes over. In Chapter 4, Heuer observes: To see the options faced by foreign leaders as these leaders see them, one must understand their values and assumptions and even their misperceptions and misunderstandings. Without such insight, interpreting foreign leaders’ decisions or forecast- ing future decisions is often nothing more than partially in- formed speculation. Too frequently, foreign behavior appears “irrational” or “not in their own best interest.” Such conclu- sions often indicate analysts have projected American values and conceptual frameworks onto the foreign leaders and soci- eties, rather than understanding the logic of the situation as it appears to them. Competing Hypotheses To offset the risks accompanying analysts’ inevitable recourse to mir - ror-imaging, Heuer suggests looking upon analysts’ calculations about xxiiforeign beliefs and behavior as hypotheses to be challenged. Alternative hypotheses need to be carefully considered—especially those that cannot be disproved on the basis of available information. Heuer’s concept of “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH) is among his most important contributions to the development of an in- telligence analysis methodology. At the core of ACH is the notion of competition among a series of plausible hypotheses to see which ones survive a gauntlet of testing for compatibility with available information. The surviving hypotheses—those that have not been disproved—are sub - jected to further testing. ACH, Heuer concedes, will not always yield the right answer. But it can help analysts overcome the cognitive limitations discussed in his book. Some analysts who use ACH follow Heuer’s full eight-step method- ology. More often, they employ some elements of ACH—especially the use of available information to challenge the hypotheses that the analyst favors the most. Denial and Deception Heuer’s path-breaking work on countering denial and deception (D&D) was not included as a separate chapter in this volume. But his brief references here are persuasive. He notes, for example, that analysts often reject the possibility of de- ception because they see no evidence of it. He then argues that rejection is not justified under these circumstances. If deception is well planned and properly executed, one should not expect to see evidence of it readily at hand. Rejecting a plausible but unproven hypothesis too early tends to bias the subsequent analysis, because one does not then look for the evidence that might support it. The possibility of deception should not be rejected until it is disproved or, at least, until a systematic search for evidence has been made and none has been found. Heuer’s Impact Heuer’s influence on analytic tradecraft began with his first articles. CIA officials who set up training courses in the 1980s as part of then- DDI Gates’s quest for improved analysis shaped their lesson plans partly on the basis of Heuer’s findings. Among these courses were a seminar on intelligence successes and failures and another on intelligence analysis. xxiiiThe courses influenced scores of DI analysts, many of whom are now in the managerial ranks. The designers and teachers of Tradecraft 2000 clearly were also influenced by Heuer, as reflected in reading selections, case studies, and class exercises. Heuer’s work has remained on reading lists and in lesson plans for DI training courses offered to all new analysts, as well as courses on warn - ing analysis and on countering denial and deception. Senior analysts and managers who have been directly exposed to Heuer’s thinking through his articles, or through training courses, continue to pass his insights on to newer analysts. Recommendations Heuer’s advice to Agency leaders, managers, and analysts is pointed: To ensure sustained improvement in assessing complex issues, analysis must be treated as more than a substantive and organizational process. Attention also must be paid to techniques and tools for coping with the inherent limitations on analysts’ mental machinery. He urges that Agency leaders take steps to: • Establish an organizational environment that promotes and re- wards the kind of critical thinking he advocates—or example, analysis on difficult issues that considers in depth a series of plau - sible hypotheses rather than allowing the first credible hypothesis to suffice. • Expand funding for research on the role such mental processes play in shaping analytical judgments. An Agency that relies on sharp cognitive performance by its analysts must stay abreast of studies on how the mind works—i.e., on how analysts reach judgments. • Foster development of tools to assist analysts in assessing informa- tion. On tough issues, they need help in improving their mental models and in deriving incisive findings from information they already have; they need such help at least as much as they need more information. xxivI offer some concluding observations and recommendations, rooted in Heuer’s findings and taking into account the tough tradeoffs facing intelligence professionals: • Commit to a uniform set of tradecraft standards based on the insights in this book. Leaders need to know if analysts have done their cognitive homework before taking corporate responsibility for their judgments. Although every analytical issue can be seen as one of a kind, I suspect that nearly all such topics fit into about a dozen recurring patterns of challenge based largely on varia- tions in substantive uncertainty and policy sensitivity. Corporate standards need to be established for each such category. And the burden should be put on managers to explain why a given ana- lytical assignment requires deviation from the standards. I am convinced that if tradecraft standards are made uniform and transparent, the time saved by curtailing personalistic review of quick-turnaround analysis (e.g., “It reads better to me this way”) could be “re-invested” in doing battle more effectively against cognitive pitfalls. (“Regarding point 3, let’s talk about your as- sumptions.”) • Pay more honor to "doubt." Intelligence leaders and policymakers should, in recognition of the cognitive impediments to sound analysis, establish ground rules that enable analysts, after doing their best to clarify an issue, to express doubts more openly. They should be encouraged to list gaps in information and other ob- stacles to confident judgment. Such conclusions as “We do not know” or “There are several potentially valid ways to assess this issue” should be regarded as badges of sound analysis, not as der- eliction of analytic duty. • Find a couple of successors to Dick Heuer. Fund their research. Heed their findings. xxvPART I—OUR MENTAL MACHINERY Chapter 1 Thinking About Thinking Of the diverse problems that impede accurate intelligence analysis, those inherent in human mental processes are surely among the most important and most difficult to deal with. Intelligence analysis is fundamentally a men - tal process, but understanding this process is hindered by the lack of conscious awareness of the workings of our own minds. A basic finding of cognitive psychology is that people have no conscious experience of most of what happens in the human mind. Many functions as- sociated with perception, memory, and information processing are conducted prior to and independently of any conscious direction. What appears sponta- neously in consciousness is the result of thinking, not the process of thinking. Weaknesses and biases inherent in human thinking processes can be demonstrated through carefully designed experiments. They can be alleviated by conscious application of tools and techniques that should be in the analyti- cal tradecraft toolkit of all intelligence analysts. “When we speak of improving the mind we are usually referring to the acquisition of information or knowledge, or to the type of thoughts one should have, and not to the actual functioning of the mind. We spend little time monitoring our own thinking and comparing it with a 12 more sophisticated ideal.” When we speak of improving intelligence analysis, we are usually referring to the quality of writing, types of analytical products, relations between intelligence analysts and intelligence consumers, or organization 12. James L. Adams, Conceptual Blockbusting: A Guide to Better Ideas (New York: W.W. Norton, second edition, 1980), p. 3. 1of the analytical process. Little attention is devoted to improving how analysts think. Thinking analytically is a skill like carpentry or driving a car. It can be taught, it can be learned, and it can improve with practice. But like many other skills, such as riding a bike, it is not learned by sitting in a classroom and being told how to do it. Analysts learn by doing. Most people achieve at least a minimally acceptable level of analytical perfor- mance with little conscious effort beyond completing their education. With much effort and hard work, however, analysts can achieve a level of excellence beyond what comes naturally. Regular running enhances endurance but does not improve tech- nique without expert guidance. Similarly, expert guidance may be re- quired to modify long-established analytical habits to achieve an optimal level of analytical excellence. An analytical coaching staff to help young analysts hone their analytical tradecraft would be a valuable supplement to classroom instruction. One key to successful learning is motivation. Some of CIA’s best analysts developed their skills as a consequence of experiencing analytical failure early in their careers. Failure motivated them to be more self-con- scious about how they do analysis and to sharpen their thinking pro- cess. This book aims to help intelligence analysts achieve a higher level of performance. It shows how people make judgments based on incomplete and ambiguous information, and it offers simple tools and concepts for improving analytical skills. Part I identifies some limitations inherent in human mental process - es. Part II discusses analytical tradecraft—simple tools and approaches for overcoming these limitations and thinking more systematically. Chapter 8, “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses,” is arguably the most important single chapter. Part III presents information about cognitive biases—the technical term for predictable mental errors caused by simplified infor - mation processing strategies. A final chapter presents a checklist for ana - lysts and recommendations for how managers of intelligence analysis can help create an environment in which analytical excellence flourishes. Herbert Simon first advanced the concept of “bounded” or limited 13 rationality. Because of limits in human mental capacity, he argued, the 13. Herbert Simon, Models of Man, 1957. 2

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