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WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY 2030

WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY 2030 14
SEATTLE, WA th Feb 4 2016 CLEAN DISRUPTION WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY 2030 Swedbank Presentation to: 17 March 2016 Nordic Energy Summit Oslo, Norway Tony Seba www.tonyseba.com Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba A STROLL DOWN Memory Lane Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba th 5 AVE NYC 1900 Where is the car Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba US National Archives : Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900 th 5 AVE NYC 1913 Where is the horse Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba George Grantham Bain Collection Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north. TECHNOLOGY BASED Disruption Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba What is a Disruption WHEN A NEW PRODUCT OR SERVICE HELPS create a new market AND significantly weaken, transform, or destroy an existing product, market category / industry Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba FAST FORWARD TO 1985 Image: GMAuthority.com Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba ‘Expert’ Disruption Forecasts In the mid1980s ATT hired McKinsey Co to forecast cell phone adoption by the year 2000 THEIR (15YEAR) PREDICTION They were off by a factor of: 900,000 SUBSCRIBERS 120 x THE ACTUAL NUMBER WAS 109 million Motorola DynaTAC 8000X from 1984. Source: Wikimedia, Source: Economist Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba ATT Disrupted while Trillions Created ▸ ATT’s landline telephony market was disrupted Subscriber Data Source: CTIA ▸ It missed out on multitrillion dollar opportunities The Wireless Association Internet Companies: Internet Report 2015 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Mary Meeker It’s usually the ‘experts’ and ‘insiders’ who dismiss Disruptive Opportunities “The Internet will catastrophically collapse in 1996.” Robert Metcalfe, 1995 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, 1977 “I do not believe the introduction of motorcars will ever affect the riding of horses.” ScottMontague, 1903 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead Market Disruptions Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Created New Tech Disruption Framework to Anticipate / Lead Market Disruptions Disruption Models 1 Exponential Technologies 2 Business Model Innovation 3 Product Innovation 4 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba EXPONENTIAL Technologies “If the rate of change on the outside is greater than the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.” JACK WELCH Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Computing: Moore’s Law 1Billion x (1971 2011) ▸ of transistors doubles (roughly) every two years. ▸ Annual improvement rate 41.4 ▸ Exponential growth in of transistors Source: Wikipedia Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Logarithmic Scale PC / Internet / Mobile Phone industries: Convergence of Exponential Technologies ▸ Technologies improving at exponential rates ▸ Data Storage – Kryder’s Law ▸ Hard Disk cost per bit down 50 every 18 months ▸ Digital Imaging – Hendy’s Law ▸ Pixels per 59 / year ▸ Network Capacity – Butter’s Law of Photonics ▸ The cost of transmitting a bit decreases by 50 every 9 months Source: Wikipedia Image: apple.com Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba apple.com 2016: Key Exponential Technologies 1. Sensors / Internet of Things 2. Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning 3. Robotics 4. Solar PV 5. Energy Storage 6. 3D Printing 7. 3D Visualization 8. Mobile Internet Cloud 9. Big Data / Open Data 10. Unnamed Aerial Vehicles / Nano Satellites 11. eMoney / eFinance Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sensors: 1,000X changes in 7 Years (2007 2014) UNIT CHANGE COMMENTS Number of From 10 million to 10 billion UP 1,000x Sensors E.g., from 250/axis for gyros Cost DOWN 1,000x to 0.75 for three axis From W to mW and mW to Power DOWN 1,000x µW, depending on sensor consumption 3 Physical E.g., gyro from 2,000 mm to DOWN 1,000x 3 2 mm /axis Size Number of From 1,000s per sensor to UP 1,000x 1,000,000s/sensor Transistors On the road to trillions of censors: Exponential Unit Growth Source: Janusz Bryzek, TSensors Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba CLEAN DISRUPTION OF ENERGY TRANSPORTATION Energy Storage 1 Electric Vehicles 2 Selfdriving Cars 3 Solar 4 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba 1 Energy Storage GreenCharge Networks Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Lion Battery costs dropping exponentially ▸ Laptop Lion battery costs dropped 14 per year over 15 years. (1) ▸ Investments in battery tech increasing dramatically: ▸ 3 multitrillion industries investing: 1. IT/ Electronics 2. Automotive 3. Energy ▸ Since 2010, battery costs have dropped at 16/year ⟶ ACCELERATING Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba (1) Clean Disruption Photo: telegraph.uk Projected cost of LiOn Battery /kWh Assumption: 16 /year Technology Cost Curve Source: Clean Disruption Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Tesla’s Battery GigaFactory ▸ 5 Billion investment (6,500 jobs) ▸ Battery pack output: 50 GWh year ⟶ 500,000 cars/year ▸ Double world battery production Reduce battery 3050+ pack costs by Tech improvement. “Tesla expects to increase pack capacity by roughly 5 per year.” (1) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: Tesla, (1) ChargeDevs Mag Image: Tesla Tesla’s Battery—Ahead of the curve Tesla PowerWall residential battery (7kWh or 350/kWh 10kWh) Tesla Microgrid/Commercial battery For Commercial/Microgrid (100kWh) 250/kWh Image: Tesla Market reaction: Tesla received 800+million in orders/ reservations first week Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: Tesla, Bloomberg Battery Megafactories are coming ▸ BYD plans to add 6 GWh every year. ▸ Could ramp up to 34 GWh by 2020 matching Tesla’s 35 GWh (1) ▸ Foxconn and LG Chem could add combined 22 GWh (2) ▸ Nissan: 4.5 GHh ▸ Samsung SDI, TDK, Apple, Bosch, VW, etc. Tech Cost Curve could Image Source: Samsung SDI accelerate Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: (1) Reuters, (2) Benchmark Minerals ENERGY STORAGE Business Model Innovation Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Business Model Innovation: Storage as a Service ▸ Stem and GreenCharge Networks offering storageasservice to reduce DEMAND CHARGES for businesses ▸ Zeromoney down, 10 years ▸ Lower utility bills by 1050 (1) ▸ Similar business model that made solar skyrocket Sources: (1) Bloomberg Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Storage Disruption Residential and Commercial ▸ Average American consumes 903 kWh/month ⟶ 30kWh/day ▸ By 2020 it will cost 36.8/month (1.2/day) for a full day of electricity storage Source: Clean Disruption Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Assumptions: 4 cost of capital (mortgage) over 20 years Storage Disruption Grid Scale ▸ The grid works like a justintime supply chain without inventory ▸ Grid: inefficient use of Assets ▸ Billions in generating assets used just a few hours per year ▸ Ex: ConEd 32 of Generation assets used 517 hrs/yr (5.9) ▸ 189 MW used 7 hrs (0.08) ▸ 1 GW used 29 hrs (0.33) ▸ 1 GW used 120 hrs (1.37) ▸ Energy Storage can replace generation assets on the grid “Post 2020 there may never be another peaker built in the US.” ▸ Peaking power = obsolete NextEra Energy CEO Jim Robo (2) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: (1) Consolidated Edison of New York, (2) GreentechMedia 2 The Electric Vehicle Disruption Photo: © Tesla Motors Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba 2013 CAR OF THE YEAR: TESLA MODEL S “It drives like a sports car, eager and agile and Consumer Reports: instantly responsive. But Best Car it’s also as smoothly effort EVER (1) less as a RollsRoyce and carry almost as much stuff as a Chevy Equinox. Oh, Bestselling highend and it’ll sashay up to the large luxury car in valet at a luxury hotel like a America (2) supermodel working a Paris catwalk.” Source: Motor Trends, (1) Consumer Reports, (2) ExtremeTech.com Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba But who can afford an Electric Vehicle Copyr Copyright ight © 2016 © 2016 To Tony ny Seba Seba Photo: © Tony Seba IS THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE Disruptive (You always need to ask) Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba 1. Electric Motor 5X more Energy Efficient Internal Electric Combustion Motor Engine Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources:ICE DOE, EM Wikipedia, Image Sources: ICE Tony Seba, Electric BradMerritt.com 2. EVs are 10X cheaper to charge/fuel ▸ It costs 15,000 to fill up a (gas) Jeep Liberty over five years (Consumer Reports) ▸ An Electric Jeep Liberty would cost 1,565 in electricity ▸ Improvements in power electronics will increase 10X Image Source: jeep.com Assumptions: 12,000 miles/year Tesla Roadster: 4.6 miles per kWh. Ave retail electricity in the U.S.: 12 ¢/kWh 5 yearcost = (60,000 miles 0.12 /kWh) / 4.6 miles/kWh = 1,565. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: Consumer Reports, DOE, Clean Disruption 3. Maintenance Gasoline Car: 2,000+ moving parts (1) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Image Source: © Todd McLellan Source: (1) Baron Funds 3. EVs: 100X fewer Moving Parts ICE (Gas) Vehicle Electric Vehicle (EV) 2,000+ moving parts 18 moving parts (1) (1) Transmission, driveshaft, clutch, valves, differentials, pistons, gears, carburetors, crankshafts... ▸ EVs 10X100X cheaper to maintain ▸ Tesla: Infinite Mile Warranty (2) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: (1) Baron Funds, (2) Tesla Blog 4 – EVs FAR MORE powerful than ICE “The Tesla P90D accelerates faster than 1 million gas 'supercars' from Ferrari, McLaren, Lamborghini, Pagani and Porsche.” (1) (1) ChargeDevs Magazine, Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Image: BRD Motorcycles EVs Shift the Price/Performance equation: Disrupt the BASIS of COMPETITION High Porsche 911 Carrera Price Medium Tesla Model 3 Buick Enclave Low Copyright © 20092016 by Tony Seba High Low Performance EVs: Porsche performance for Buick prices Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Car Image Sources: WikiMedia OK, SO THE EV IS DISRUPTIVE How long will the transition take Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Disruption from Above: Cost of EV with 200mile (320 Km) range ICE “Affordable SUV": 3540K Ave ICE Car cost in US: 33K Ave cost of Lowend gas car in US: 22K Assumptions: 4 miles/kWh, 50kWh batteries, 16 yearly improvement in battery costs, Clean Disruption Copyright © EV Costs = 3X cost of battery 20012016 by Tony Seba Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Clean Disruption Cost of Electric Vehicle th January 9 , 2016 CEO BARRA UNVEILS BOLT EV CES 2017 Chevy Bolt: 200mile range Electric Vehicle for 37,500 unsub “It’s more than a “Carsharing, new car, it’s an ownership models, upgradeable automated platform for new driving… down the technologies.” (1) road.” Image Source: Fortune Source: (1) Fortune Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba th December 11 , 2015 FORD TO INVEST 4.5B IN ELECTRIC CARS “CEO Fields said Ford will invest 4.5 billion to develop 13 EVs by 2020.” The company will enter the carsharing market and become a 'mobility service provider', a market worth 5+ trillion. “We now get zero of that market.” (1) Source: (1) BBC News Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba th September 4 , 2014 FOXCONN TO MAKE EV FOR 15,000 “Foxconn, the maker of the Apple iPhone to invest 811m to develop Electric Cars.” “Foxconn CEO Terry Gou said they are targeting EVs priced at less than 15,000.” (1) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: (1) Computer World ELECTRIC VEHICLE Business Model Innovation (That might accelerate the Disruption) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba EV Free Charging ▸ EV Companies such as Nissan and Tesla offering limited Free EV Charging networks. ▸ SV Startup Volta offering FREE EV charging in exchange for media rights at prime highvalue properties. ▸ If this business model succeeds, the EV MARGINAL COST of energy will be ZERO. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: Volta, Nissan, Tesla Image Sources: Tesla, Volta Charging EVs Generating Providing Services to Grid ▸ With Vehicletogrid (V2G) technology, an Electric Vehicle (Nissan Leaf) can power a house or a small apartment building for a day or two. ▸ EVs can also provide the grid with ancillary services that can generate revenue for the EV owner. ▸ At COP21 Paris, Nissan showed V3G product that ENEL will roll out in 1Q 2016 ▸ EVs = Power Plants on Wheels Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Image Sources: Tony Seba The Autonomous 3 Vehicle Disruption Image: Wikipedia Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba abc7news.com th May 5 , 2015 FINANCIAL TIMES NEVADA APPROVES AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba nd October 2 , 2015 TESLA CAPABLE OF SELF DRIVING 90 OF THE TIME “Fully selfdriving “90 Autonomous. For within 2 years.” (2) sure on highways.” (1) Elon Musk, Dec 2015 Image: Tesla Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: (1) UK Daily Mail, (2) Fortune rd June 3 , 2014 SELFDRIVING CARS MAY HIT THE ROAD IN 2018: RENAULTNISSAN CEO Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba WHAT ABOUT THE COST of Autonomous Vehicles Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba What an autonomous car sees Copyr Copyright ight © 2016 © 2016 To Tony ny Seba Seba Graphic Popular Science Exponential Technologies: Machine Vision (LIDAR Sensors) Google announced that the cost of 150k technology in its selfdriving car was 2012 LIDAR Sensor (for Machine Vision) was 70k By the end of The next generation LIDAR was 10k 2013 By Oct A SV Startup company announced LIDAR for 1k 2014 Image: Wikipedia Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba LIDAR: From 70,000 to 250 1,000 2015 GEN 1 LIDAR 2016 GEN 2 SOLID STATE LIDAR 250 90 GEN 3 (POSTAGE STAMP) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: Quanergy Autonomous Vehicles = Computer on Wheels WHAT IS THE Cost Curve of Computing Power TO PROCESS SENSOR INPUT Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Image: © Copyright Tony Seba Year 2000: World’s 1 1TeraFlops Computer st ASCI RED Sandia National Labs ▸ Space = 1,600 sq ft (150 m2) ▸ Power Consumption = 850 kW ▸ Cost = 46 million Image: Extreme Tech Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Wikipedia Exponential Technologies: GPU: NVIDIA Drive™ PX Dual Tegra® X1 GPU Processor 2.3 TeraFlops Power Consumption = 15 W 56,666X improvement Cost = 59 1 million improvement Built for SelfDriving Cars ▸ Surround Computer Vision (CV) with Advanced Rendering ▸ Deep Learning S/W ▸ Overtheair updates Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Image and Data Sources: NVIDIA improvement OK, COST IS NOT AN ISSUE… BUT, Is the market ready for the SelfDriving car Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Are consumers ready for autonomous cars 2.8 b people Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Cisco Systems Are consumers ready for autonomous cars China 70 Brazil 95 India 86 Copyr Copyright ight © 2016 © 2016 To Tony ny Seba Seba Images Source: chinawshisper.com, inrix.com, ryot.org Cool I can and also while NOT driving BUT WHAT’S THE Disruptive Impact Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba jenningswire.com Photo: Tony Seba BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION: Carasa Service Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba My Smartphone: Ondemand CarasaService Plan schedule All transportation needs with Apps 1. Buses: Muni, NextBus 2. Trains: CaltrainMe, iBART 3. CarSharing: Zipcar 4. RideSharing: Uber, Lyft 5. OnDemand Bus: VTAFlex 6. Taxis: FlyWheel Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba RIDE Sharing Companies disrupting private and public transportation. ▸ Connecting users with drivers ▸ Ex: Uber, Lyft ▸ Uber (started 2009): ▸ May ’15 311 cities in 58 countries (1) ▸ Est. 2015 Bookings = 10 billion (2) ▸ 1 million drivers (global) (3) San Francisco Figures ▸ Uber Drivers (2015): 22,000 ▸ of Taxicabs (2012): 1,825 (4) ▸ Carpooling = half of Uber Rides Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba (1) (2) (3) Business Insider, (4) Wikipedia Cars: Hugely Inefficient Use of Assets nd ▸ Cars = 2 largest Capital Expense ▸ Ave. car costs = 31k ▸ Cars are parked 96 of the time (1) ▸ 4 Asset Utilization is a disruption waiting to happen Photo: Tony Seba Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: (1) Donald Shoup SELFDRIVING + CAR SHARING: Convergence of Technology Business Model Innovation Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba nd February 2 , 2015 UBER ANNOUNCED SELFDRIVING CAR PROJECT “Uber announced plans with Carnegie Mellon University to create the Uber Advanced Technologies Center: RD of autonomous vehicles.” “When there’s no driver, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle… and then car ownership goes away.” said Uber’s CEO Photo: Tony Seba Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba th January 13 , 2016 GM TO LAUNCH SELFDRIVING LYFT FLEET IN AUSTIN, TX Image Source: GM “The first mainstream deployment of autonomous vehicles won’t be to customers but to a rideshare platform.” GM President Dan Ammann “This makes sense for GM: 1. An autonomous Bolt EV will be in use 6070 of the time. 2. Easier to create a car that works in a known city Photo: GM within certain limits below 30mph. 3. Open up new markets.” Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba CarasaService: The End of Car Ownership ▸ Mobility on Demand / Carasaservice: ▸ SelfDriving Cars tech with ▸ Car/Ride Sharing biz model ▸ Cars go from parking 90+ of time to driving 90+ of time. ▸ Cost / mile 10X cheaper than car ownership ▸ We’ll need 80 fewer cars ▸ 80+ fewer parking spots (1) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: (1) Clean Disruption 3D – CLEAN DISRUPTION OF TRANSFORMATION Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba 4 The Solar Disruption Image: Tony Seba Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba abc7news.com Solar PV Costs: DOWN 222X Learning Curve: 22 100/W ¢45/W 222X Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: BNEF Economics of PV Power Market: Solar PV Installed Capacity: UP 174X ▸ Solar PV Market CAGR 20002015 41 ▸ Solar PV installed Capacity 20002015 Growth 174X Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: EPIA, PV Magazine Energy = 100 Solar by 2030 ▸ If Solar PV continues to grow at 41 CAGR ▸ 100 of all energy (not just electricity) in the world would be solar by 2030 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Clean Disruption Can Solar Continue Growing at this Rate Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Solar Cost Trends VS Conventional Energy Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Since 1970 Prices for conventional resource based energy sources are up 6X 16X Nat Gas Oil Nuclear Coal Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: DOE, Clean Disruption Solar Cost Improvement vs. Conventional Energy Oil at 30/bbl ▸ Since 1970 Solar PV has improved cost by thousands of times relative to most conventional forms of energy ▸ Note: unsubsidized cost of solar PV Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Clean Disruption BUSINESS / FINANCIAL Model Innovation Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba rd Zero Money Down Solar – 3 Party Finance ▸ 80 of California Residential Solar PV was thirdparty owned financed (March 2012) (1) ▸ Including Solar PPA and Leasing ▸ CA 3rd party finance = enabled substantially all growth in residential solar… since 2009 California Solar Initiative Colorado Excel Energy Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Image Source: GTM Research, Source: (1) PV Solar Report Financial / Business Innovations Financial / business model innovations are lowering the cost of capital and accelerating solar adoption 1. ThirdParty Finance PPA Lease 2. Solar Loans 3. YieldCo 4. PACE Property Assessed Clean Energy 5. Bond PPA Hybrid 6. CrowdFunding 7. MLP Master Limited Partnership 8. REIT Real Estate Investment Trust Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba BACK TO SOLAR COST TRENDS: Grid Parity or God Parity Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba DB: Grid Parity in 80 Global Markets by 2017 ▸ Solar at/below grid parity in 100’s of markets globally TODAY ▸ Deutsche Bank: Solar Below Grid Parity in ▸ 47 states in the US by 2016 ▸ Up to 80 of Global market by 2017 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Deutsche Bank Solar PV costs to drop another 50+ by 2020 ▸ Solar PV costs down 400X from 29702020 ▸ Citibank: installed cost of Residential solar 1.12/W by 2020 ▸ Installed cost is already 1.4/W in Australia (2) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: 1) Renew Economy, (2) SolarChoice.net.au Graph Source: Citi Bank and GTM Solar Growth Rate may Accelerate (TECH SCURVE) Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Technology Adoption SCurve (Color TV US) ▸ Solar PV is a technology ▸ Tech adoption is not linear but follows an SCurve Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Graph Source: Technology Futures, Inc. Solar GOD Parity Point of No Return Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba RedOrbit.com God Parity by 2020 Rooftop Solar Transmission ▸ God Parity: cost of (unsub) rooftop solar lower than cost of transmission ▸ Centralized Generation can't complete ▸ Obsolete: Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Coal Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: Clean Disruption Solar + Storage GOD Parity ▸ Solar and Storage costs decreasing exponentially Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Graph Source: Tony Seba BUT NOT ALL POWER GENERATION WILL BE ROOFTOP, RIGHT What about Utility Scale Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Utility Scale Solar in USA – Dropping to 5¢/kWh ▸ USA 2015 PPAs 5 ¢/kWh (+/ 1¢/kWh) (1) ▸ NV Energy Solar PPA ⟶ 3.87 ¢/kWh (Jul ’15) (2) ▸ Saudi Arabia PPA 4.9 ¢/kWh (unsub) (Aug ’15) (3) ▸ “Solar at 5.8 ¢/kWh is competitive with oil at US10/bbl and gas at US5/MMBtu” (4) Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sources: (1) GTM Research (2) PV Magazine (3) CleanTechnica (4) University of Cambridge PwC Back to the Future Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba abc7news.com Summary: On the Cusp of major Disruptions in Energy and Transportation 2016 We are here US National Archives Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba 2016 Clean Disruption of Energy Transportation ▸ The technologies, skills, and organizations of the industrial revolution have run out of steam ▸ They are being replaced by the technologies, skills, and organizations of the information technology revolution 1. Energy Storage 2. Electric Vehicles 3. SelfDriving Cars 4. Solar PV ▸ We will see more changes in energy transportation over the next 510 years than we have seen in a Image: © Copyright Tony Seba century since the invention of the gasoline/diesel ICE vehicle and the central generation electric utility Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba The Future is NOW. This Disruption is not in the future. It is NOW Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Thanks QA www.tonyseba.com Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba SEATTLE, WA th Feb 4 2016 CLEAN DISRUPTION WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY 2030 Swedbank Presentation to: 17 March 2016 Nordic Energy Summit Oslo, Norway Tony Seba www.tonyseba.com Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
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