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EmmaGoulding,Vatican City,Professional
Published Date:06-07-2017
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SEATTLE, WA th Feb 4 2016 CLEAN DISRUPTION WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY 2030 Swedbank Presentation to: 17 March 2016 Nordic Energy Summit Oslo, Norway Tony Seba Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba A STROLL DOWN Memory Lane Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba th 5 AVE NYC 1900 Where is the car? Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba US National Archives : Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900 th 5 AVE NYC 1913 Where is the horse? Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba George Grantham Bain Collection Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north. TECHNOLOGY BASED Disruption Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba What is a Disruption? WHEN A NEW PRODUCT OR SERVICE HELPS create a new market AND significantly weaken, transform, or destroy an existing product, market category / industry Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba FAST FORWARD TO 1985 Image: Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba ‘Expert’ Disruption Forecasts In the mid-1980s AT&T hired McKinsey & Co to forecast cell phone adoption by the year 2000 THEIR (15-YEAR) PREDICTION They were off by a factor of: 900,000 SUBSCRIBERS 120 x THE ACTUAL NUMBER WAS 109 million Motorola DynaTAC 8000X from 1984. Source: Wikimedia, Source: Economist Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba AT&T Disrupted - while Trillions Created ▸ AT&T’s landline telephony market was disrupted Subscriber Data Source: CTIA - ▸ It missed out on multi-trillion dollar opportunities The Wireless Association Internet Companies: Internet Report 2015 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba - Mary Meeker It’s usually the ‘experts’ and ‘insiders’ who dismiss Disruptive Opportunities “The Internet will catastrophically collapse in 1996.” Robert Metcalfe, 1995 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, 1977 “I do not believe the introduction of motor-cars will ever affect the riding of horses.” Scott-Montague, 1903 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead Market Disruptions? Rodin – Thinker Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba Created New Tech Disruption Framework to Anticipate / Lead Market Disruptions Disruption Models 1 Exponential Technologies 2 Business Model Innovation 3 Product Innovation 4 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba EXPONENTIAL Technologies “If the rate of change on the outside is greater than the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.” JACK WELCH Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Computing: Moore’s Law 1Billion x (1971 - 2011) ▸ of transistors doubles (roughly) every two years. ▸ Annual improvement rate 41.4% ▸ Exponential growth in of transistors Source: Wikipedia Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Logarithmic Scale PC / Internet / Mobile Phone industries: Convergence of Exponential Technologies ▸ Technologies improving at exponential rates ▸ Data Storage – Kryder’s Law ▸ Hard Disk cost per bit down 50% every 18 months ▸ Digital Imaging – Hendy’s Law ▸ Pixels per - 59% / year ▸ Network Capacity – Butter’s Law of Photonics ▸ The cost of transmitting a bit decreases by 50% every 9 months Source: Wikipedia Image: Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba 2016: Key Exponential Technologies 1. Sensors / Internet of Things 2. Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning 3. Robotics 4. Solar PV 5. Energy Storage 6. 3D Printing 7. 3D Visualization 8. Mobile Internet & Cloud 9. Big Data / Open Data 10. Unnamed Aerial Vehicles / Nano Satellites 11. eMoney / eFinance Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Sensors: 1,000X changes in 7 Years (2007 - 2014) UNIT CHANGE COMMENTS Number of From 10 million to 10 billion UP 1,000x Sensors E.g., from 250/axis for gyros Cost DOWN 1,000x to 0.75 for three axis From W to mW and mW to Power DOWN 1,000x µW, depending on sensor consumption 3 Physical E.g., gyro from 2,000 mm to DOWN 1,000x 3 2 mm /axis Size Number of From 1,000s per sensor to UP 1,000x 1,000,000s/sensor Transistors On the road to trillions of censors: Exponential Unit Growth Source: Janusz Bryzek, TSensors Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba CLEAN DISRUPTION OF ENERGY & TRANSPORTATION Energy Storage 1 Electric Vehicles 2 Self-driving Cars 3 Solar 4 Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba 1 Energy Storage GreenCharge Networks Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Li-on Battery costs dropping exponentially ▸ Laptop Li-on battery costs dropped 14% per year over 15 years. (1) ▸ Investments in battery tech increasing dramatically: ▸ 3 multi-trillion industries investing: 1. IT/ Electronics 2. Automotive 3. Energy ▸ Since 2010, battery costs have dropped at 16%/year ⟶ ACCELERATING Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba (1) Clean Disruption Photo: